Saturday, February 12, 2011

Domino Effect: Tunisia, Egypt...

Domino effect: Tunisia, Egypt, …

Finally he did it, Mubarak resigned!!!!!

Amid speculations and concerns about the outcome of the controversial speech Mubarak delivered the night before, the news came like a lightening, burning Egypt and by the same way the whole world with fervent celebrations and mutual congratulations for the end of a dark era, an era ruled by oppression and injustice, an era people had enough of and were fed up with.

The regime fell down, a demise characterized by a silent and incomprehensible implosion of power, where a president claiming he had no intentions of resigning gave up the power 20 hours later with no official statement or drum roll.
After two weeks of constant struggle and steady demonstrations growing all over the country, Egyptians succeeded in getting rid of their stubborn dictator who loves power so much he cannot afford leaving it.
Once again, the protests in Egypt confirmed the two quotes I would best identify with the recent events:

“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.”
John F. KennedyIn a speech at the White House, 1962
35th president of US 1961-1963 (1917 - 1963)
“People should not fear the government; the government should fear the people”
V for Vendetta
A new equation, though known since early ages, has been reintroduced to the modern world through the active work and struggle of the free people of the globe. If the revolution in the past century has been taught in the prestigious schools of guerilla movement in South America, now we are witnessing the opening of a greater and wider Madrassa where the scholars and teachers are at the same level of competence and efficiency, disregarding their background, religion or political wing.

Back to yesterday, when the whole world was waiting impatiently for the speech Mubarak was meant to deliver.

The first intriguing circumstance is the delay of the speech almost one hour from the time announced by the state media. Earlier in the day everybody was intrigued by the meeting of the high ranked military officials without the presence of the supreme military commander Mubarak, and it became obvious there is a new turn point the country was following. 

An Egyptian soldier holds a boy atop an army vehicle as they celebrate the news of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak, who handed control of the country to the military, in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo, Egypt, February 11, 2011

One of the main repercussions of the withdrawal of the army support from Mubarak was a general confusion, where reports flooded Media talking about internal cracks in the regime or even an early death of Mubarak’s empire which got mainly his support from the military institution. These speculations gave birth to some conspiracy theories insinuating that the future of Egypt was sealed before the speech of Mubarak, and that the president did resign previously as part of an emergency plan to evacuate him safely through gaining time by broadcasting prerecorded speech on national TV. Even during the speech, the audience could first notice that Mubarak related the same points he talked about in his previous word to the nation, and secondly at some point during the speech, we could easily spot a cut in the video and a transition between two different frames, which shows that what was really broadcasted is no more than a prerecorded discourse and not a live one.
This leaves us with the conclusion that something went wrong in the secret corridors of the regime or there were discussions ongoing to reach an agreement between the army and the president in order to secure his travel and wealth in exchange of an immediate resign from power. This leads us to the certitude that a huge part of the Egyptian history will probably not be unveiled for us, leaving us ignorant of what happened during the most important period of time during 21st century Arab history.

Also, the CIA director Panetta’s revelation to the congress leaves us complex about the coordination of the U.S secret services and the main players in the Egyptian regime. While Panetta and his whole panel of intelligence personnel were predicting a fall of Mubarak in the evening of the 10th February, military institutions reversed all American plans and predictions, pushing the U.S policy makers outside the Egyptian internal crisis as part of a rebuilding and reconstruction process of the country without any kind of U.S inference or outside implication in the shaping of the new democratic government the people spilled their blood for.

Does this propose a potential secession between Washington and Cairo? Would it be the end of a love story between Egypt and the West? Could we witness the withdrawal of Egypt from the role of the watch dog of U.S and Israeli interests in the region?

So many questions left without answers, especially during this disturbed period when no one knows exactly what’s going on, where is the president or what form of government could emerge from the Egyptian uprising?
Now that the second head of dictatorship in the region was overthrown from his throne by people, the big question is: WHO’S NEXT??

Well, all analysis agree that the wave of revolutions blowing around throughout the Arab countries will definitely have a domino effect, bringing down the regimes one after the other, and leaving the region in a total chaos, a chaos I agree will have disastrous effects on the economy and political situation of the nation, but nonetheless will bring fruitful long term outcomes to the welfare of democracy and overall development in the dark aged Arab countries.

We are going through a transitional period which needs all our efforts gathered together in order to give our people, our countries and our shared destinies a great push toward the future we dreamed, we planned and finally realized with painful and bloody efforts.

The train of revolutionary change just left the Egyptian station, heading to its next stop somewhere in the Arab region, be it Algeria, Yemen, Jordan or Libya.

In other scientific words, the revolution going on is similar to a nuclear chain reaction in the core of an atom bomb. Once the process is triggered, there is no way to reverse it, delay it or stop it. No one ignores the devastating impact of a nuclear blast, yet everybody is ready to expose his chest to this tremendous explosion called the Arab anger.

Algerians are burning in their homes, waiting for the suitable moment to unleash their anger, determination and dreams in the face of the repressive military machine which has been monitoring the life of 34 million individuals the way a master behaves with his 34 slaves.

Yemenis have marched against injustice, demonstrated against oppression and shouted together the melodies of freedom and justice. The official response was firing at protesters who dared to criticize the ruling elite and throwing them in the prisons, prisons people don’t fear any more if it will be for the sake of a superior cause unable to be harmed or reached through physical means or superficial concepts.  

The train tomorrow is leaving from Cairo streets, Tahrir square station to a new destination, this destination being chosen by you, you are the only conductor of the vehicle, the choice is yours and setting the schedule is your assignment, no matter what you believe or from where you are, you are able to be the leader of your own revolution, the only thing needed is determination and belief, belief in a better future sculptured with the hands of people, belief in a possible fair and just life as the only one priority and target to fulfill, belief…., belief….

What do you wait, get on the train and go to the cockpit, we cannot afford waiting more!

 Mohamed Amine Belarbi

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