Why I say No to the military coup

With no introductions, here is my personal take on the Egyptian recent developments:

Well I disagree with the way they brought Morsi down; if it's going to be a democracy, then let the impeachment be through the voting ballots, not through military coup in a country divided heavily. It is easy to miscalculate what a majority is when we use as references pictures of thousands or millions marching and chanting against the president, but truth be said, millions in a country of 80 million individual is far from statistically meaning anything.

Even if scores of the population went down against Morsi, he still have as many supporting him, and throwing the votes of the millions who voted for the Islamist president down the trash is not only a slap against what democracy is standing for, but is also an open invitation for direct confrontations that can easily escalate into a civil war. Indeed brotherhood failed in dealing with several issues of economic or political nature, but isn’t it the case for most democracies and political governing systems throughout the world? The day an elected government manages to tackle all domestic challenges and successfully address them, then we’d have achieved that utopia no one talks about except in books of fiction. A military take over and mass detentions of Brotherhood figures doesn’t seem to be an achievement of a popular will, but most likely seems to be a rushed reaction to deal with an uneasy transition, and most likely to cause an even greater crisis given the stigmatization it has brought against Political Islamism and the alienation of a segment of the population’s will or political choice.

Some may argue that the political environment, as well as the judicial and institutional realities of Egypt may have prevented a democratic action to impeach the president or to bring on early elections, but let us remember that the Egyptian people were the ones voting for Morsi in the first place, and the ones taking on their disapproval to the street didn’t allow the president elect a fair period at the helm of the government to actually produce results. One year is not enough to judge a president (that is why in most democracies presidential terms span through 3 to 5 years), especially someone who took office after a revolution, an economy in the red and security in jeopardy.

Egyptians may have set the bar too high, and it's impossible for a president or a government to fix everything an entire chaotic country the first months, Transitions are hard and demanding, but Egyptians appear to forget that the nation is gathering itself out of a regime meltdown and is in a re-evaluation phase where all principles of governance and political institutions are put under scrutiny and reconstruction.

Maybe the Muslim brotherhood is not that good in many respects, but the reality is that they are the most organized and they won the elections. If the Egyptians are against them, then let them show it through political parties and political participation;

The best way to oppose some political or ideological organization in a democracy is to organize and face them in the battlefield, aka the elections; making a mess, encouraging anarchy or getting the military involved never solves anything but just brings the country to the brinks of a civil war.

Many you argue with tend to delegitimize the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood by invoking that their supporters are mostly residents of rural areas and are not fully aware of the Brotherhood’s lack of good governance and whatnot, yet this argument seems closes to a self-condemnation because the very people who preach it disregard an important question: If the rural areas are so blinded into voting for the devil himself, then why didn’t the previous regime or the numerous NGOs set a comprehensive framework to spread awareness to rural areas or improve their living conditions as to draw them away from the Brotherhood’s grip? It is easy to point fingers, find excuses, and fall into a state of arrogance where we categorize a segment of the population as worthy of the right to choose their political representatives while denying it to others.

What is alarming in the current Egyptian crisis is the far reaching implications it has on the MENA region and the Sahel. Political Islam has always been stigmatized because of its tendency to promote violence and preach a bloody agenda of extremism, ultra-conservatism and anti-human rights policies, yet when the Political Islam renounced violence in the post Arab Spring through the participation of Islamist factions in the political life (something they have been banned from doing), the reaction from the street and from a certain segment of the population has been outright rejection of their legitimacy and reactionary refusal of an agenda they didn’t even have the chance to assess because of the many prejudices held against it.

Political Islam now is being given another excuse to lose hope in democracy and democratic tools of participation. The rule of law, although preached and professed to be for everyone now appears to be an exclusive right of the secular, the liberal and is forbidden for Islamist models of rule. This leaves no other means for the Islamist to voice their opinions and shape politics other than through violence, which is why the West, championed by the US is reluctant on approving of the military’s move given the disastrous implications it can set in motion in the future.

After Algeria and Palestine, Egypt joins the club of countries where the military unlawfully deposed a democratically elected government shaped by Political Islamist agendas, and the consequences as in these nations is a return of extremist violence, something which we already started witnessing in the Sinai where armed operations against the military are being conducted by Islamist factions.

Closing TV channels to prevent the Brotherhood from decrying the military takeover, rounding up their key figures and claiming that major cities are the only representative of the Egyptian will stems from a fear that Political Islam may become the key force driving politics and Egyptian domestic affairs, a turn event that is far from making the strongholds of corruption happy, and is sure to threaten the economic empire of the military as it did in Turkey with the AKP.

Egypt is in a turning point, and much of the region’s future development will be shaped by what actions are set in action in Egypt during the crisis. Be it a civil war, a return to armed confrontations, a radicalization of the Muslim brotherhood and its operations or a return to civilian rule through the restoration of the president elect are all potential outcomes that can either build or break modern Egyptian democracy, or at least the nation’s stability and security.

Mohamed Amine Belarbi

Egyptian Politics: between the immature and the unorganized

Egyptian Politics: between the immature and the unorganized

The recent tragedy unfolding in Egypt in the aftermath of the presidential decree is a critical sign of Egyptian politics’ immaturity. An immaturity not only due to the young democracy that is taking shape in Egypt, but also due to the inexperience of the ruling party that has shouldered political responsibility and state management for its first time.

Although not enlisted in the Muslim Brotherhood or in its political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, Mr. Morsi showcases all the pathological signs of the Muslim Brotherhood approach to politics and policymaking. The extensive network of the Muslim Brotherhood spans throughout Egypt and the greater Middle East, yet the historical background of the organization doesn’t include in its records periods of time where the brotherhood assumed political office or statesmanship position. Imbued in an activist and underground lifestyle, the Muslim brotherhood drew its power in its ability to mobilize its members and partisans en masse and in short notices, as well as its extensive knowledge of the public opinion’s tendencies and ways to manipulate domestic and foreign events in shaping the street pulse and using it as a leverage to further their agenda and recruitment process.

The issue with underground, and in this case banned groups and congregations, is that ideological battles are their expertise, yet Realpolitik and political practice are not fields of mastery for groups that always strived to assume roles of opposition and state defiance with no intent on engaging in statesmanship and policy making.

The case of the attempt of the Muslim Brotherhood to assassinate the Egyptian president Gamal Abdennasser in 1954 is a typical trait of the organization: Although the assassination of the president would not have an impact on the course of policies of its administration, the Brotherhood envisioned such attempt as a show of force to further confirm its defiance and opposition stance against the government. If the Brotherhood had any sense of political engagement, it could have mobilized its extensive human and financial capital to lobby and influence policy makers as a mean to shape policies they see best serve their agenda or that of the Egyptian people.

The same trait of rebellion continued during the Arab Spring and Egyptian revolution, a revolution that remains a standing ovation for the ability of the Muslim Brotherhood to mobilize a vast human capital and hijack mass protests through a subtle and swift influence and engineering of the public opinion and street pulse. Yet, as the regime fell down and the prospects of power became apparent for the Muslim Brotherhood, the newly legitimate organization assumed political office through its political party, the Freedom and Justice party, a step that is being considered a true game changer in the history of the Brotherhood. For 84 years of activity, the Muslim Brotherhood assumed state responsibility, a responsibility that extends beyond the operational capability of the congregation given the lack of political experience and exposure to the intricacies of governance and state management.

Although a gloomy prospect for Egyptian domestic affairs, the Muslim Brotherhood remains the only alternative in a political spectrum hugely divided between unorganized and scattered political actors.

Whether liberals, secularists or moderate Islamists, the plethora of political establishments in Egypt is far from displaying the political plurality that is a sign of a healthy democracy. The realities enclosing the various political parties in Egypt attest of their inefficacy and inability to run a consensual government cohesive enough to stand the challenges of the post-revolutionary Egypt. The opportunities that the revolution offered seemed immeasurable in political terms, thus the exponential rise in political formation, parties and groups was a much-expected trend in the Egyptian arena, a trend that not only determined the impossibility of forming a non-Islamist majority government, but also signed the death testimony of the Egyptian pluralistic system of governance.

Although some of the political establishments, in great parts remnants of the old regime, have the ability to govern and to strongly handle the domestic affairs in Egypt, they remain hugely overwhelmed by the far reaching discipline and organization of the Brotherhood, and continue to be seen under a negative light due to their association with the fallen dictatorship.

The way forward in Egypt is to be determined by the willingness of the Muslim Brotherhood to both accept a political compromise and an ideological paradigm shift. The Muslim brotherhood lacks the experience that statesmanship requires, an experience that can be offered by the contesting political establishments pioneered by the secularists and the liberals. Although see as an ideological threat, the Muslim brotherhood can still accommodate the opposite factions in state organs by offering a mutual governance of Egyptian affairs, a mutual governance that can be exploited by the Muslim brotherhood as a temporary venture to gain the political maturity needed for a powerful governing organization. The Muslim Brotherhood will not be able to assume fully its responsibilities towards the Egyptian street unless it decides to relegate its rebellious ideology and its affinity towards opposition for a more governance driven line of thought. It is of paramount importance to realize the necessity that the times of staunch opposition are over, and the era of political practice is on. If the Brotherhood is to persist in its ideological supremacy and political immaturity, it will lose the hearts and minds of the supporters who propelled it to the pic of power, and it will miss on the golden opportunity of transforming its principles, values and precepts into actual enforced policies through the powerful medium of the state and parliament.

Mohamed Amine Belarbi

International Affairs on the Edge Magazine

Finally our Magazine is out! This 1st publication compiles recent articles by Mohamed Amine Belarbi on various topics, ranging from A potential war on Iran to US Foreign Policy.

Open publication - Free publishing

Post-Revolutionary Egypt: What's Next? Part 4

Politics & Religion:

One would hardly conceive consulting a chapter on state reforms without having separate rooms for religious and political analysis and recommendations, yet with an elected president formed and nurtured under the auspice of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt, it is becoming harder to distinguish between political agendas and religious commandments even though glorious empires and successful state management has once been led by fervent prophets and religious apostles.

Political Islamism nowadays has bridged the divide between state management and religious theology, and the Muslim brotherhood fashion has embodied such philosophy following the recommendations of its founder AlBanna. A legacy which, though inspired revolutions and ignited incidents, is still at the center of interrogation by both the public opinion and the centers of powers worldwide. Far from being compared to the Turkish Gullen movement who advances an Islamic agenda through education and business, the Muslim brotherhood embraces a full political approach directed towards the control of key positions inside the government, thus implementing its vision through state organs.

This being said, the mischievous game of politics can easily put the current government under stress and recurrent test, especially that the social, religious and geographical features of Egypt allow malicious schemes to take effect without much planning. Whether a plot to blow up a church, or a furtive attack on border patrols near the Rafah crossing point, the blames of state mismanagement or blind and reckless compassion with Hamas are  common currency in Pharaoh’s land, a currency too easily manipulated by the political lack of regulation.

The Egyptian government needs to act quickly and efficiently to reverse the power flow and to assert the will of the public opinion as main source of legislation instead of induced and forced actions prompted by the Military council and allies of the former regime. This can be achieved through greater representation, active engagement of the civil society and formation of key political alliances. The greater representation has already been upheld by president Mursi when nominating Coptic Christians in key positions in the government, yet the increase of the female representatives in the government has not been as much secured. Nominating females for senior posts in the state will not only draw support and appreciation from the public opinion, but will also clear the doubts about the approach of the Muslim brotherhood indoctrinated president about women rights and representation.

Moreover, representation ought not only to give justice to women, but also to the generation Y without which a revolution could not proceed. The inclusion of the young individuals in the ministerial cabinet and state offices is a priority and an ethical imperative to pay tribute to the effort of the grassroots youth movements who came to the streets and scarified lives and wealth for the nation’s welfare. With a 71% literacy rate and a an almost 63% of population aged 15-64[1], the young generation is not only abundant, but is also educated and well-endowed to uphold responsibilities in the political spheres of the country. Relevant fields of state legislations cannot be competitive, visionary and innovative unless under the guidance of a young official. Such fields comprise the ministries of new technologies and higher education and scientific research.

On another note, political alliances are crucial for healthy political performances both due to its effectiveness in channeling efforts towards consensual goals and preventing political confrontation which undermines state efforts in most cases. The political offspring of the Muslim Brotherhood, the freedom and justice party, ought not to indulge in ideological quarrels with the secular and liberal movement in order not to alienate itself amid a growing critical base in the Egyptian street. The alliances can be policies-specific and thus would neither endanger the ideological integrity nor identity of the Muslim Brotherhood representatives. The policies pertinent to the nations’ economy, for example, can be drafted in coordination with the liberal movement which abides by the market oriented principle of economy. Their inclusion in the process of establishing a liberal, market oriented vision for Egypt will indeed strengthen the image of the current government as an inclusive institution meant to represent the entire ideological and political spectrum in an effort to incrust a political democratic offset to the leading Freedom and Justice party.

Finally, sound state management in a democratic society ought to empower the civil society and uphold it as a crucial partner in elaborating the domestic policies. The civil society in Egypt has proven to be an illuminated establishment with unequal human resources, yet the attention required to recognize the work of the numerous associations and equip them with the necessary financial and logistical needs has been overlooked. Joining the different NGOs in state building is not only a matter of democratic exertion but is a point pertinent to national security concerns. Several NGOs in Egyptian and foreign territory acquire funding and expertise from foreign government to promote an agenda which sometimes threatens Egyptian interests. Given the political circumstances which put Egypt on a sensitive position in the world chess board, and the disturbances which populate the relationship between Egypt and several governments amongst is Israel, allowing the civil society to be infiltrated by foreign agendas because of certain political alignments or plain negligence is a fatal error which endangers the homeland security at the highest levels.

This being said, these set of recommendations and opinions are to be observed and implemented, and timing in state management is a crucial feature which alone can determine whether a government can indeed succeed or fail dramatically regardless of the nature of its policies. Egypt is in a historical turnout, and recalling the losses in human and financial resources makes it clear that enough has been suffered and scarified, and time has come to do the right things at the right moment.

Mohamed Amine Belarbi

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[1] The CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html

Post-revolutionary Egypt: What’s next? Part 3

One thing worth noting, the Egyptian military is everything but a defense body preoccupied with the nations’ security and protection. The Supreme council of the armed forces is operating not only as a nation’s arms bearer, but indulges in day to day operations related to real estate, tourism, business transactions and political follies.

"It's a business conglomerate, like General Electric," said Robert Springborg, professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, referring to the Egyptian military. "It's represented in virtually every sector of the economy."[1]

In a country where a transition from military to civilian rule has just taken place, the nostalgia for power remains a driving force for decrees, actions and conspiracies led by the SCAF generals. What one ought to understand is that non-confrontational diplomacy is not enough in the case of Egypt, alienating the SCAF the way the Turkish Islamists alienated the Ataturk military officials is the only way to regain control over state affairs and domestic legislations.

It is important and crucial for president Mursi to realize the necessity to station the military back into their right position, and failing to do so will have deep impacts on the national security of the nation and on its economic performances. On one hand, the military in Egypt, as asserted by the Global Research Center for Research on Globalization, have been a staunch adversary of free market and liberal transactions. With a tight grip on different industrial sectors, the Scaf advocate and advance state ownership over the private sector in order to secure the privileges and interests they cultivate through state owned corporations. It goes without mentioning that without liberal policies and a more market oriented economic strategy, the Egyptian economy will suffocate under the pressure of foreign competitiveness and services.

On the other hand, the current conditions of the military are worrying. The weaponry and logistical acquisitions are in a poor condition, and the readiness of the Egyptian troops is far from meeting the necessary requirements in case of conflict escalation. The recent incidents spanning along the Egyptian border have pinpointed to a lack of management of the territorial security, and recurrent breaches by smugglers, fighters or immigrants could jeopardize the safety of Egypt, especially in instances of attacks against Zionist troops or rocket firings which would ultimately lead to a retaliation Egypt is far from being able to support and legitimize.

Looking back at a neighboring country, Turkey, one can draw lessons on how to assert civilian state leadership and overturn military arrogance and inference in domestic legislations: Sledgehammer!

Sledgehammer conspiracy was the widely mediatized set of trials that involved top Turkish military, with the majority of the chief secular generals convicted for attempts to lead a military coup and seize power from the AK civilian government. Whether real or simply an Islamist masterminded scheme to get rid of the trouble makers who opposed the non-secular civilian leadership, the AK party managed to drag top officials to the courts and induced many to resign promptly from their functions.

A similar Sledgehammer scenario could easily be implemented in the current conditions, and a quick look at the charges held against the Turkish military allows us to draw clear similarities:

“It reportedly involved plans to bomb mosques and provoke tensions with Greece, in order to spark political chaos and justify a military takeover“[2]

In a country where the shadowy decades of military rule still resonates in people’s minds, and where the Supreme Council of Armed Forces is widely pointed as culpable and accomplice in the mass unrest unraveling in Egypt, holding formal accusations against the military will not only prove to be legally founded, but will as well secure the approval of the public opinion.

The military establishment in Egypt is corrupt on different levels, and a massive rehabilitation of the institutions is a prerogative the new Egyptian government ought to prioritize. A top down cleansing of the military should set the priorities of the presidential agenda since the political motives in the military are comprised to the leading elite.

It is time to ensure the safety of the nation both domestically and abroad through a strong military institution, independent and non-aligned with national political currents, a military transparent and sophisticated with high levels of alertness and readiness at all times. Partnerships ought to be explored with regional allies, and Turkey is a well-developed nation with highly skilled and well equipped army contingents.

An important notion in the military institution is armament. Armament sets forth two important aspects: technology advance and price competitiveness. These two attributes are well covered by the Turkish state. As a leading arm exporter (leading armament manufacturers corporations ASELSAN, Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation MKEK, Turkish Aerospace Industries TAI), a world top military spender (15th),a NATO member and a roaming economy with budget surpluses, Turkey is the perfect ally to seek in Egypt’s military restructuration. It goes without saying that the political and ideological likeliness of the two governments will furthermore facilitate any potential alliance and military collaboration between the two states.

To be continued...

Next: Political and Religious course of action

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[1] Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23211

[2] Turkey: Military chiefs resign en masse, BBC website, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14346325

Post-revolutionary Egypt: What’s next? Part 2

Never too late: industrialization, services and technology

Egypt, since the major period of industrialization under the Nasser administration, fell back on the international arena to a mere import oriented economy relying for its most on foreign production to fulfill its market’s needs. Nowadays, after a toppled regime and a genuine declared war against corruption and centralization, the Egyptian economy is ready to engage once more in the competitive sector of major industries spanning from the petrochemical sector to the production and assembly of automobiles and military weapons. The educational system in Egypt is one which is acknowledged for its quality and excellence, a success mostly witnessed through top class intellectuals and engineers whom Egypt exports throughout the world.

One would doubt the necessity and indeed the potential attributes of an imminent industrialization in Egypt, especially in a world which industrial wheel has been rotating since the 19^th century, but the current situation in the Middle East and especially the Gulf attests of a different reality.

Acetex, Corporation has entered a newly formed joint venture to build a US 1 Billion $ plant in Jubail Industrial City in Saudi Arabia[1], and this comes after Qatar built the biggest gas-to-liquid plant at the grand pleasure of the Qatari Emir. The region is witnessing a fervent ascension to major industrialization, and it is a favorable time for Egypt to enroll in such efforts.

Whether through implementing gas and petroleum refinery plants in joint ventures with the gulf countries as did Tunisia along Qatar in a 2 Billion 2$ Investment[2] (Especially that the oil and gas fields in Egypt are poorly exploited through an old and inefficient exploitation and delivery infrastructure), or be it through the privatization of the state owned plants in order to reform and improve the soviet dated firms and production lines to the requirements of the 21^st century.

Another aspect of the Egyptian economy is its large agricultural activities which account for 13.5% of the GDP. Looking back at the wealthy fields across the Nile strikes the viewer immediately: the scene never exceeds the view of poor installations, few human resources and archaic tools of production. Nations with far smaller land mass whose workforce in the agricultural sector is dwarfed by that of Egypt still manages to have a colossal input in the world market. What is needed is indeed a reform and improvement of the mean of productions in Egypt, a qualification of the workforce and the introduction of technology, genetic selection and mass production in the agricultural fields. This will boost not only the productivity, but will as well expand the usable land mass in the vast desertic fields as what is been done in Saudi Arabia and co.

Egypt is rich in resources, and the abundant oil, gas, iron, manganese, limestone or phosphates are here to further confirm it. The human resources to exploit these natural riches are as well in excess, so what is needed is a true political willingness to advance the economic competitively of Egypt instead of using induces poverty and illiteracy as political tools to enslave the people as has been done during the Mubarak Era.

Furthermore, the prospects of monetary rehabilitation are appealing, and the necessity for Egypt to uphold thus far a diplomatic and strategic foreign policy supportive of the US is more than encouraged in order to secure the American Billions of dollars’ worth of aid. This, coupled with an up to market prices trade with Israel over the oil exports would enrich the state monetary reserves of another dozen of billions $. Finally, the alignment of Egypt with the West and the gulf countries in their effort to ignite a war against Iran will inevitably poor on the Egyptian reserves juicy banknotes issued by the petro-dollar rich and grateful gulf nations  for the Egyptian efforts to sustain “peace and stability” to the region.

An enhanced industrialization, a fierce war on corruption and a rehabilitation of the monetary system and relief of the aggregating debts is to engage Egypt in the path of economic competitiveness and major industrial production, a deeply needed pathway where the economic survival of the nation ultimately rests.

To be Continued...

Next: Political Reforms

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[1] http://www.siteselection.com/ssinsider/snapshot/sf040419.htm

[2] http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE84E09Z20120515

Post-revolutionary Egypt: What’s next? Part 1

Almost a month has passed since the crowning of Mursi as President of Egypt after a runoff election which put the whole country of not the world on a standstill. With a nation deeply divided over the nature of the presidential candidates and their respective agenda, the victory of the Muslim brotherhood is far from being celebrated as an achievement, and rather mentioned as an inevitable destiny the presidential elections put forward before the sealed box container could unveil their secret ballots.

Now that the results are known and the president has been sworn to office, the future of Egypt remains as uncertain as during the midst of the revolution. With remains of the old regime being, as custom goes, fiercely pointed as conspirators behind any vice the country suffers and every tragedy the public opinion hears of, and a zealous base of supporters of Ahmed Shafiq who see stability as key component of the country’s daily life, a stability threatened by a potential confrontation between the Muslim brotherhood and the Supreme Council of Armed Forces.

Regardless of the fuss raised about the secret agendas and the hidden hands, one thing remains certain: Egypt is in downwards financial, social and political slide, and that is far from being an unseen and dubious course of events. The President, in a challenge not only to prove himself a worthy figure, but in a confrontation as well that will shape the future of the Political Islamism across the MENA region, can only thrive for a solid consolidation of his victory through the accomplishment of highly valued successes internationally, and most importantly on the domestic arena.

I will develop a set of arguments and ideas about the future decisions that ought to be taken in the fields of economics, politics, military and religion in order to insure a peaceful transition towards democracy for a nation that spilled enough blood to buy its dignity and prosperity back from decades of tyranny.

Economy:

Being the 27^th greatest economy with a GDP flirting with the 530 Billion $ is something to be proud of, yet endangering the nation’s wealth and input has become the key concern for the Egyptian citizen, blaming the financial collateral damages of the revolution for the downwards spiral the nation has been experiencing on the casual streets as well as on the stock market.

The spilled billions of $, along with the damaged industries and slowed production has merged to establish an unsustainable financial situation that puts at risk the political credibility of the new leadership and questions the very necessity of the revolution in the first place.

Looking back at the nature of the country, its past focal industries and the professional sector its universities produces, one can lay a working scheme for how the nation ought to operate its economy in order to boost its GDP and consolidate its revolution with a flourishing democracy propelled by promising financial records.

1.       The Nile:

Aiming at economic development cannot acquire its credibility unless the fuel to power plants, to fire machines and to melt iron can be secured. Providing electricity for the hungry fuel-consuming industries must be a priority for chief economic and financial advisors for the new leadership, and doing so won’t need the implementation of the American or Chinese natural resources exploitation schemes. (Neither American military driven quest for oil nor Chinese diplomatic venture in African dictatorship controlled markets). What nurtured the civilization of the great pharaohs and what witnessed the royal naval processions of ancient monarchs is well endowed to provide the Egyptian economy with the necessary blood to water its veins. The mere figure of 12%[1] is the amount of electricity produced by the Dams scattered across the Nile in the Egyptian soil, and given the political turmoil on its southern borders, Egypt could easily increase the figure to new records.

The 1959 Nile Waters treaty entitles Egypt to 82% of the water volume, thus restricting the access of Cairo to the full capacity of the river’s potential electrical output. The plans of the former Egyptian regime to increase its number of Dams along the river have been met with furious discontent from the southern neighbors spanning from Sudan to Ethiopia. The political conditions of Sudan and Ethiopia now are a domestic burden prone to be exploited by an awaking power in the North.

Sudan, now divided into two countries since the independence of the south, is not in a position to sustain its internal politics and economics due the loss of the major oil reserves and to the cracking of its domestic affairs between political unrest and social revolts. Egypt, through the offering of economic and diplomatic assistance to Khartoum in its struggle with Southern Sudan could manage easily to turn the currency of such business into Sudan’s acquiescence to the ventures of Cairo in the Nile resources. Khartoum is now draining in its stockpiled petro-dollars which are everything but eternal, and the current socio-economic conditions warns of an imminent drought of the nation’s monetary reserves. With nothing to sustain the efforts of war and diplomatic confrontation with Juba, Sudan will see the extended hand of Egypt as a divine intervention which ought to be celebrated and greeted by any necessary compromises and sacrifices.

A full access to the Nile, even with Khartoum consent and Juba’s acquiescence due to its abundant oil reserves and thus lack of interest in Hydro-electric power wouldn’t be possible without Ethiopia’s approval. This challenge could be overcome by coupling a strategy of intensifying trade relations and Egyptian expertise exports to Addis Ababa to help develop the inexistent infrastructure and implement industries meant to strengthen the fastest growing non-oil-dependent African economy between 2007 and 2008[2] (with what it brings of industrialization ties to Cairo and thus relative dependence on it), and through a stronger US-Egyptian cooperation to counter Chinese intrusion in Ethiopian market since it would pose a serious threat to the water resources which Chinese economic tentacles in Africa avidly consumes.

Such strategy, if put in place could expand Egyptian access to the Nile water over its prescribed shares, granting greater hydro-electric capacity and wider civilian and industrial access to the river’s waters, thus empowering furthermore the Egyptian economy and sustaining its supplies of fuel through a consolidated electrical generation through the Nile waters.

To be continued...

Next: More subtopics to be covered in Economy: Industrialization, Tourism, Services and Gulf investments

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[1] Egypt Energy Issue http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/energy-issues/egypt/index.shtml

[2] "Ethiopia sees Africa's fastest growth". Afrol.com. http://www.afrol.com/articles/28991

How can individual rights be secured in the Mideast’s new reality?

 How can individual rights be secured in the Mideast’s new reality?

The Arab World has gone through a tempestuous period where regimes have been toppled and new social orders were established. What some observers advanced is the idea of the emergence of a new Arab World Order built upon ideals and values of democracy, liberalism and social solidarity. This new Arab World order, which rightly has been pinpointed as the catalyst of several world uprisings taking place in settings as different as the US, Spain, Kuwait and Greece, has shown to be a philosophy expanding beyond physical borders and cultural boundaries. It is indeed a mindset for people to adopt In order to make their voices heard, and bring about a change they see as necessary not only for social prosperity and political survival, but most importantly for justice and equity in rights and duties attribution. This essay attempts to draw and define the typical political, social, economic and religious features of this new Arab World Order, features which are critical for the development of an entrenched and efficient understanding and protection for individual rights of the citizen in the Arab World.

1.     Political

Politics is undeniably one of the main factors without which an Arab Spring couldn’t have seen light. Political dictatorship and totalitarianism has made it possible for a small elite of privileged politicians and businessmen to form an oligarchy of hidden actors who enjoyed pulling the strings of the political scene in the Arab world.  Making it a personal fantasy or an enjoyable chess game, these oligarchs not only drowned in their pleasure for power and control, but also forgot to dress an efficient strategy to sustain their grip on power when dark clouds pop from above. Decades of rule can be seen as a triumph for the political elite, but the servile subjects of yesterday are no more among the masses, instead giving place for a new social power to emerge with unconventional thoughts and defying opinions. The Youth has indeed been the unexpected factor in the equation of the Arab spring, a youth who managed to turn political consciousness and intellectual assiduity into an organized movement. The precedent generations, crumbling under illiteracy and poverty, have been unable to discern the blessings of an alternative system of power with just and fair attitude towards its people, yet the fully knowledgeable generation Y of today, geared up with liberalistic, democratic and socialist thoughts, made the unprecedented step of thinking outside what is available. “If it ain’t break, don’t fix it” was not good enough for High school and college graduates who wanted to construct a society striving for the best and asking nothing but social justice and advance. Now that it is clear for the Arab citizen and the world that the new rising power is the generation Y, it is big time to invest in it as the prominent agent of change. Youth have the potential to get involved in the political management of their respective nations now that the barriers of the deceased regimes are gone. Youth involvement or influence in politics can be a paradigm shift in our understanding of the role of the young generation in the socio-political spectrum. This can be achieve through various means ranging from political affiliation and activism among pre-constructed organisms such as parties, or through a more efficient engagement in the civil society which is a key player in sculpting the public opinion and the political arena of the country. Think tanks, though still not flourishing in the Arab World, can be the conciliatory bridge the youth have been looking forward to during the time of repression and autocracy. Being in the heart of decision making doesn’t necessarily require being part of the political game; it can instead be feasible through influence and through the power of suggestions and recommendations. Think tanks not only offer a platform for the young generation from where to have an impact on how the country is run, but also a template to stand on as the forefront of a social defense mechanism preventing the citizens’ rights to be coerced or alienated.

Youth have been side lined in favor of a closed and elitist branch of the Arab society, thus having no say in how the country operates or what the government priorities should be in the different social, economic and political domains. It is time for youth, however young and inexperienced they are, to expose their ideas and ideals on an open forum, and make from these opinion and recommendations a raw material able to be processed by the authorities in such a way that it becomes politically, socially and financially applicable. This way, the political individual rights of the youth are duly considered and the civil liberties of the citizen in the field of cooperative management of the nations’ affairs is taken care of.

2.     Socio-Economic

No one can disregard the power of the socio-economic conditions of a certain nation in influencing the observance of individual rights of the citizen. Not to fall in the trap of the economic determinism of the thinker Karl Marx, the socio-economic state of the Arab world have had a partial role in reversing the course of history in this part of the world. How can individual liberties be respected when people cannot provide for their keen and for themselves the resources to survive and live with dignity. A life without dignity is a life whose owner has nothing to lose, thus being prone in acting immorally toward society as a whole. Governments can turn the people servile through degrading socio-political conditions, yet it has always proven to be a short term policy as demonstrated by world regimes throughout history. Turning tough socio-economic conditions into a governance tool for decades is foolish strategy for regimes which aspire to eternal existence. A win-win situation imposes itself under the realm of the famous kingdom of Realpolitik: Let the government enrich itself, yet making sure that the people gain enough to not question the authority of the state. As bad as it may seem, it is unthinkable under the premises of the system of politics to imagine a government ideal enough to sacrifice its privileges for the sake of its people, especially that in the Arab political scene, as it is for the world political scene, most government officials are graduates of the economic university of life rather than matured products of strong political currents.

As Henry A. Wallace wisely stated: “Their final objective toward which all their deceit is directed is to capture political power so that, using the power of the state and the power of the market simultaneously, they may keep the common man in eternal subjection.”

This is in conventional politics, yet, what we are seeing in the Arab world may turn out to be a redefinition of the principle of governance, and a way to sustain a vision of a government concerned with social welfare must be a process which involves the social spectrum side by side with the state. Here comes the economic and social vision for the Arab world: Social Entrepreneurship.

Social Entrepreneurship is the fuel for social advance and individual as well as social flourishing of the citizen. Allowing your subjects to locate and identify the problem, cure it and monetize it while benefiting the society alleviates the hardship the state has to face in order to solve the nations’ issues. Startups and businesses owned and operated by creative and brilliant youth in the Arab world can not only provide employment for society, but as well secures the individual rights of the citizen in owning properties, making money and generating revenue well spent and well invested for the sake of the individual and its social circle.  This strategy prevents the catastrophic emergence and creation of monopolies managed by the state or state empowered agents, thus preventing the economic welfare of the citizen from being targeted and sold for parties concerned by profit more than by the citizen satisfaction and well-being.

3.     Religion

What the Arab spring has shown to the entire world audience is that religion can indeed be the cement to consolidate society’s ranks rather than the fire which burns the social order down. Religion can be a tool for individual rights advance if approached strategically as it ought to. Structuring a political and social system which secures the religious rights of all its components can add credibility and trust to the usually strained relations between the state and its citizen. Youth come in the frame again as the torch bearers for religious understanding and interfaith respect. The Arab world, though mostly Muslim in essence, has been through the Arab uprising due to the engagement of all its religious constituents in one single vision: A future Arab world where rights protection prevail. There is nothing that can install cohesion and mutual respect in a society better than common difficulties which align everyone for a shared goal and conviction. The safety of the society, of the nation and of the individual far outweighs the religious differences that might arise, and thanks to the enlightened youth engagement in constructive cooperation regardless of religion affiliation, a new mindset has been conceived, a mindset that the new Arab reality ought to consolidate through the prioritization of individual rights protection mechanisms set and operated by progressive youth who believe in the appreciation of differences and the celebration of variances without which a dynamic society is doomed to collapse.

Mohamed Amine Belarbi

Cofounder: Arab Institute for Youth Policy Making                                                                               Founder: Moroccan Institute for Youth Policy Making

(Morocco)