TURKEY—‘A MUCH NEEDED MIDDLE EASTERN POWER?’

The first major victory of the Seljuk Turks over the forces of the declining Byzantine Empire at the battle of Manzikert on 26th August 1071, gave prominence to the Turkic peoples especially those associated with Osman the great Turkish Muslim warrior. These peoples later became known as the Ottoman Turks or Osmanlılar (Turkish for “those associated with Osman”).

Like the battle of Gaugamela in 331BC, in which Alexander ‘the great’‘ dealt a crushing blow to the glorious Persian armies of Darius III, the Seljuk Turks or Ottomans in series of military triumphs, dealt the final blow to what was left of Emperor Constantine’s empire in the levant in the subjugation of Constatinople by Mehmed II in 1453. The conversion of the Hagia Sophia (the capitol of orthodox Christianity and the seat of the Patriach of Constatinople) an architectural master piece of Athemios of Tralles and Isodorus of Miletus by the victorious Ottomans to a mosque emphatically announced the rise of another Islamic power after the decline of the glorious age of the Arab Caliphs and Caliphates

The Ottomans (a non-Arab Muslim people) struck a chord different to the rulership style of their spiritual Arab brethren (the originators of Islam) in that, they sought a blend between the Orient and Occident. This was clearly emphasized in the administration of Sultan Mehmed II the Conqueror (1432-1481) to Süleyman I, The Magnificent (1494-1566), Sultan of the Ottoman Empire (1520-1566), during whose reign the empire reached its zenith of power and splendour. During his reign, the Ottomans rocked the gates of Vienna----the seat of the Hapsburgs and lords of the Holy Roman empire.

At a moment when the Arabs lacked natural leadership, the Ottomans (Spiritual Bethren of the majority Arab Muslim middle east), proved a congruous force in bringing the middle east at par with advances of the ever seeking dominant European powers. The Ottomans were able to effectively administer their heterogenous religious and ethnic populations with minimal issues of tensions among the various subjugated peoples.

  

A PATH TO DECLINE

In signing the treaty of Karlowitz in 1699, the Ottoman Empire began to tread the path of a steady decline and non-relevance in international politics; and by the end the first world war in 1918, the Ottoman empire was in ruins! All subjugated peoples of the empire had gotten their agitation for independence and Constatinople (the Seat of Ottoman power) was under Allied (British, French and U.S) occupation.

At the moment of Ottoman desperation, a vanguard for Turkic liberation arose in Mustafa Kemal who in his nationalistic fervour  revoked the Treaty of Sèvres and pushed the Allied occupation force out of Constatinople. Abolishing what was left in the 623 year rule of the Ottoman Sultanate in deposition of Mehmed IV Vhadettin, Turkey became a republic on November 1, 1922. Mustafa Kemal, later known as Ataturk (Father of the Turks) instituted revolutionary reforms in his new found republic among which are:

•     The abolishment of  the Sultanate and Caliphate (making Turkey a republic),
•     The ban on the wearing of Islamic dress in public (the fez cap and the hijab)
•     The separation of religion from state.
•     The Latinization of the alphabetical characters used in writing the Turkish language—a departure from the use of Arabic alphabetical characters. He also de-Arabized the Turkish language.
•     The introduction of European styled canonical law for governance.

Ever since then, Turkey began a pro-western path and it was no surprise when Turkey joined the western military alliance (NATO) in 1952; becoming a buffer against Soviet expansion in the Levant during the height of the cold war.

Thus, Turkey has been a darling to both the western powers and its Arab and Muslim neighbours in its unique relationship with both the middle orient and the occident. No wonder Turkey (a Muslim nation) has diplomatic relations with Israel (an unwanted entity to most Arabs) to the tune of joint military cooperations.

From its fall after the second world war, the population of Anatolia has witnessed a steady rise in Muslim population while the traditional Christian population has declined. Persecuted Muslim populations of the Caucasus found a welcoming home in Turkey and thus the Muslim population of Turkey has swelled from over 50% in the early 1900’s to 99%.

Despite Turkish attempts in joining the European Union after series of westernization policies, Turkish membership has been declined in reminisce of  its religious significance as a Muslim majority nation. This may not be seen as a set back for Turkish cause as she needs to identify her role as a bridge between the Levant and the Occident.

Whilst this role was well administered by the defunct Ottoman empire in its glory days, mordern day Turkey can draw an inspiration from its glorious Ottoman past. Her ability to chide Israel and still maintain diplomatic sanity with the Jewish state, walk arm in arms with the Western powers and still maintain spiritual communion with its Arab muslim neigbours most of whom practice Sunni Islam (the orthodox form of Islam) does lends a credence to any purported form of Turkish dominance of levantine politics.

Whilst Egypt, Iraq, and Syria have tried and failed trump the Arab and Muslim cause in the middle east and Iran (a majority Shiite nation) not seen as a credible option by most Sunni Arab Muslims, Turkey provides a worthy leadership.

At a time when western powers are wary of military intervention in the middle east in the face of inconclusive battles and withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan, there’s a vacuum for a Muslim leadership in the middle east as the Arab league lacks clear leadership vigour in tackling the unrest in the middle east.

As the Syrian conflict drags unending with countless hundreds of thousands of civilian causalities and the UN security council powers bickering their interests rather than resolve the quagmire, the initiative beckons on Turkey to front the leadership of the Muslim middle east!

Samson Faboye

Reading beyond the Iranian Pakistani Pipeline

Oil & Gas Pipelines: Geopolitics in the Making 

The announcement of the construction of the 1600 Km Iranian-Pakistani gas pipeline didn’t fail to create a true sensation in the world of politics, let alone in the corridors of the White House. In my previous Blog articles, I talked endlessly about the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and specifically in the Baluchistan Region that includes Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, yet the theoretical rant on the rise of the rest mainly driven by Chinese geopolitical ambitions is now crystallizing with every tube that is being laid down between Iran and Pakistan. 

An unfaithful ally (Pakistan) collaborating with a declared enemy (Iran), all under the financing of the 2^nd world superpower (China) will not bring much thrust to the crippled foreign policy and strategic planning that the US is conducting overseas, and is sure to reverse the balance of power in the region. The Chinese backing of the pipeline is a clear act of defiance towards Washington, because it does not only redefines the rules of the game and establishes a new standard for approval of sensitive projects in the region, but also jeopardizes the effort of the US to tear down the Iranian economy, and bring to a halt the suspected military nuclear program the mullahs in Teheran are undertaking.

Oil and gas have long been decisive assets in determining the outcome of geopolitical games and conflicts, and their grand power in forging alliances and cementing collaboration is what threatens the very strategic scheme the US has been trying to implement in AF-PAK region. Iran has not only managed to distance Afghanistan from the US through its economic and political support of Kabul, but is now more than ever closer to breaking the US Pakistani alliance via its economic support of the Pakistani economy through the establishment of the pipeline that will provision Pakistan with an additional 4000 Megawatts of electricity.  A reliant Pakistan on Iranian gas provisioning does not only ensure that Pakistan will orbit closer in the circle of Teheran, but will also kill any potential complicity of Pakistan in a future military action against Iran.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, though under severe sanctions and economic embargo, is playing geopolitics way better than what analysts in the White House would have predicted, and this reinforces the fallacy of economic sanctions on Oil economies, a fallacy that proved inefficient in Iraq and is now blatantly failing with Iran. In a region where economic models are byzantine and ailing, Iranian oil is a commodity that can ensure economic growth for its neighbors through the fueling of major projects, and the provisioning of electric coverage especially in times where social unrest is prone to benign disturbances and popular dissatisfactions with the lack of government-produced public goods. The US has challenged the sovereignty of Pakistan more than once, a challenge that couldn’t be silenced through small financial grants especially that Islamabads' cooperation with Washington on counter terrorism has long been unrewarded. With such opportunity, Iranian policy makers couldn’t miss on the chance to terminate US Pakistani relations and boost Teheran influence over its neighbor in a never-ending game of dominos. After the US in intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, both countries ended up getting closer to the Islamic Republic, not by choice but by necessity given the lack of long-term vision on the part of US leadership. Now after the series of drone strikes in Pakistani soil, the storming of Ben Laden’s compound in Abottabad and the recurrent attacks of US media and US political sphere on the Pakistani intelligence (corruption and collaboration with hostile forces), Pakistan cannot refuse the extended hand of Iran, an extended hand that will at least prove to be an economic catalyst for growth and development in the mostly rural and tribal country.

If Iran is exploiting the US foreign policy breaches in Baluchistan, someone in the Far East is not missing on supporting the Iranian leadership in its anti imperialistic efforts to counter Uncle Sam. Beijing, keeping a low profile through the 90s and the 1^st decade of the 21^st century, is now moving on to upholding its imposed role of event shaper in Asia pacific, the Middle East and the Sub-Continent area, yet still without indulging in a direct confrontational policy with the US. China has been leading a new type of proxy warfare, a warfare not conducted with weapons and fighter jets, but with economic packages and financial loans. Well in line with Marxist “Economic Determinism”, Chinese officials are now realizing the true power of money in shaping global events and molding alliances, a lesson that has long been proven effective by the IMF and the World Bank loan programs. Financing the Gas pipeline between Pakistan and Iran with a 500 million $ package is not an economic signal Beijing is making, but a resonant geopolitical statement to the US that American blessing for major projects is now obsolete, and that Chinese interests in the region are as critical as those of the US.

What we are witnessing is the formation of a complex network of economic-based loyalties that China is establishing throughout South Central Asia region, with Iran as a primary broker. The IP Pipeline, if ever achieved, will initiate a spree of pipeline branching that will ultimately connect China to Iranian Gas and Oil fields, making it impossible for the US to ever consider military action against Teheran given the fact that such action will directly jeopardize Chinese interests in the country. An economic Oil hungry giant satisfied, and a US presence deterred is a dream becoming reality for both Iran and China who aspire to become key regional players in the area. Iranian oil and gas capabilities have long been undermined, and the model developing now is strikingly similar to the case of Russian geopolitical development in the last decade. The Russian gas empire has only recovered from its Soviet collapse trauma after developing an extensive network of pipelines in Easter and Western Europe with the help of business oligarchs, and what we are witnessing today in Iran is a similar scenario, with the only difference that the Russian oligarchs are now substituted with Chinese wealthy sovereign funds that are financing Iranian projects.

The years to come will witness an extensive pipeline networking throughout the South East and central Asia region, a networking that will seal forever the US leave from the region, and will anchor the establishment of a new balance of powers where China and Iran are the key decision makers, one signing events with Oil and Gas, the other with piles of dollars and financial loans. The rise of the rest is finally overcoming the initial period of economic growth and reaching out to the geopolitical aspirations for influence and control. A new world order is shaping up, and the US seems oblivious to these new geopolitical equivalents to tectonic shifts. 

Mohamed Amine Belarbi

Malian Crisis: A golden chance for Algerian Geopolitics

With the situation in Mali progressing slowly towards a certain resolution that will be dictated by French military might, it becomes clear that what ought to be pondered is no longer the potential defeat or success of the intervention in Northern part of the country, but rather the future stakes that each regional and international player will bring back home. While French presence has been empowered more than ever by a loyal and grateful Malian government, Algeria on the other hand is still on the crossroads of defining its future role in Mali.

The Malian stability cannot in any way be guaranteed by a short term military intervention, and the French support of today may no longer be an option given the growing reluctance of the public opinion to afford another burden on the national economy, or to indulge in another armed conflict. The guarantor of Malian stability will with no doubt be Algeria, the regional player that has long been at the vanguard of anti terrorism in the Sahel region. With such responsibility comes a great deal of advantage, an advantage that Algiers knows well can be exploited to enhance its influence and reach not only in the Sahel, but also in the Sub-Saharan region all while accommodating French interests.

What the Malian crisis has shown is that the Malian military are far from being fully equipped to handle the challenges posed by domestic threats. The inability of the central government to provide security and stability throughout the vast territory accounts for a blatant lack of personnel and logistics among police forces and military troops. On the other hand, Algeria, the oil rich neighbor “most likely was the biggest military spender in Africa in 2009 and is the world’s ninth largest importer of weapons”. Moreover, Algeria’s military budget accounted this year for 10.3 Billion $ worth of equipment to modernize the military and boost security capabilities.[1]

Instead of letting French presence shape the regional politics and military agendas in Mali, Algeria is far more concerned with dictating terms on its borders through influencing its neighbor by the provisioning of support and military assistance. The French presence in Mali might seem like a much welcomed initiative, yet as the urgency of the security threats in Mali fades down, the French troops and intrusion will turn into a target of criticism, speculation and even confrontation given the social, religious and political environment surrounding the region’s state of affairs.

In order to enforce its agenda on Malian soil, Algeria will have to distance Paris and Bamako, creating an ideological rift that will make future support of Bamako relevant to the absurd. The way to go about such maneuver is to play the imperialism card, both on a domestic level and on a regional one.

Algerian diplomacy ought to conduct extensive talks with Malian authorities in order to warn them from a potential attempt by Paris to set foot in the region for exploitation purposes. As Mali’s resources are being slowly tapped into, and as the revenue from gold mining reaches new records due to the financial setbacks in the EU economy, it becomes a plausible theory that French presence is motivated by resources agreements and predatory agendas, a theory Algerians know all too well how to shape given the years of antagonistic politics they engaged Paris in.

The currency French authorities have on the table is military coverage and security provision, a currency quite affordable in Algerian soil. Thus, using a regional security umbrella pioneered by Algerian troops will uproot any need for French presence. Algeria has multiple incentives to engage in such scheme, from geopolitical ambitions for expansion and influence, to security advantages since it will have the ability to go after AQMI deep in Sahel soil.

On another note, Algeria has all to win from establishing itself fiercely in the Sahel due to the increasing popularity of Touareg dissidences. Given the precarious nature of ethnical distribution in Algeria, it is all too probable that revolts and proclaimed partial independence in the Sahel might fuel similar ambitions in Algeria, a prospect that the central government in Algiers has been combatting for decades now. A greater presence in the Sahel using Mali as a springboard will allow greater monitoring of rebellious movements and quicker responses to crisis before they extend to proportions that are threatening Algerian national security in its military and social aspects.

Finally, establishing itself as the primary player in the Sahel, Algeria gains de facto the role of the point contact in any initiatives including western interaction with the Sahel and Sub Saharan Africa. This gives any nation great leverage in shaping and dictating terms on the table of negotiations, in influencing the flow of trade and natural resources exploitation and in gaining benefits from future economic incursions by the US, EU or China in the rich mineral market of the Sahel.

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[1] Algeria Increasing Military Spending, Defence Web, http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28518&Itemid=118