With the situation in Mali progressing slowly towards a
certain resolution that will be dictated by French military might, it becomes
clear that what ought to be pondered is no longer the potential defeat or
success of the intervention in Northern part of the country, but rather the
future stakes that each regional and international player will bring back home.
While French presence has been empowered more than ever by a loyal and grateful
Malian government, Algeria on the other hand is still on the crossroads of
defining its future role in Mali.
The Malian stability cannot in any way be guaranteed by a
short term military intervention, and the French support of today may no longer
be an option given the growing reluctance of the public opinion to afford
another burden on the national economy, or to indulge in another armed
conflict. The guarantor of Malian stability will with no doubt be Algeria, the
regional player that has long been at the vanguard of anti terrorism in the
Sahel region. With such responsibility comes a great deal of advantage, an
advantage that Algiers knows well can be exploited to enhance its influence and
reach not only in the Sahel, but also in the Sub-Saharan region all while
accommodating French interests.
What the Malian crisis has shown is that the Malian military
are far from being fully equipped to handle the challenges posed by domestic
threats. The inability of the central government to provide security and
stability throughout the vast territory accounts for a blatant lack of
personnel and logistics among police forces and military troops. On the other
hand, Algeria, the oil rich neighbor “most likely was the biggest military
spender in Africa in 2009 and is the world’s ninth largest importer of
weapons”. Moreover, Algeria’s military budget accounted this year for 10.3
Billion $ worth of equipment to modernize the military and boost security
capabilities.[1]
Instead of letting French presence shape the regional
politics and military agendas in Mali, Algeria is far more concerned with
dictating terms on its borders through influencing its neighbor by the
provisioning of support and military assistance. The French presence in Mali
might seem like a much welcomed initiative, yet as the urgency of the security
threats in Mali fades down, the French troops and intrusion will turn into a
target of criticism, speculation and even confrontation given the social,
religious and political environment surrounding the region’s state of affairs.
In order to enforce its agenda on Malian soil, Algeria will
have to distance Paris and Bamako, creating an ideological rift that will make
future support of Bamako relevant to the absurd. The way to go about such
maneuver is to play the imperialism card, both on a domestic level and on a
regional one.
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Algerian diplomacy ought to conduct extensive talks with
Malian authorities in order to warn them from a potential attempt by Paris to
set foot in the region for exploitation purposes. As Mali’s resources are being
slowly tapped into, and as the revenue from gold mining reaches new records due
to the financial setbacks in the EU economy, it becomes a plausible theory that
French presence is motivated by resources agreements and predatory agendas, a
theory Algerians know all too well how to shape given the years of antagonistic
politics they engaged Paris in.
The currency French authorities have on the table is
military coverage and security provision, a currency quite affordable in
Algerian soil. Thus, using a regional security umbrella pioneered by Algerian
troops will uproot any need for French presence. Algeria has multiple
incentives to engage in such scheme, from geopolitical ambitions for expansion
and influence, to security advantages since it will have the ability to go
after AQMI deep in Sahel soil.
On another note, Algeria has all to win from establishing
itself fiercely in the Sahel due to the increasing popularity of Touareg
dissidences. Given the precarious nature of ethnical distribution in Algeria,
it is all too probable that revolts and proclaimed partial independence in the
Sahel might fuel similar ambitions in Algeria, a prospect that the central
government in Algiers has been combatting for decades now. A greater presence
in the Sahel using Mali as a springboard will allow greater monitoring of
rebellious movements and quicker responses to crisis before they extend to
proportions that are threatening Algerian national security in its military and
social aspects.
Finally, establishing itself as the primary player in the
Sahel, Algeria gains de facto the role of the point contact in any initiatives
including western interaction with the Sahel and Sub Saharan Africa. This gives
any nation great leverage in shaping and dictating terms on the table of
negotiations, in influencing the flow of trade and natural resources
exploitation and in gaining benefits from future economic incursions by the US,
EU or China in the rich mineral market of the Sahel.
[1]
Algeria Increasing Military Spending, Defence Web, http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28518&Itemid=118
