Almost a
month has passed since the crowning of Mursi as President of Egypt after a
runoff election which put the whole country of not the world on a standstill. With
a nation deeply divided over the nature of the presidential candidates and
their respective agenda, the victory of the Muslim brotherhood is far from
being celebrated as an achievement, and rather mentioned as an inevitable
destiny the presidential elections put forward before the sealed box container
could unveil their secret ballots.
Now that
the results are known and the president has been sworn to office, the future of
Egypt remains as uncertain as during the midst of the revolution. With remains
of the old regime being, as custom goes, fiercely pointed as conspirators
behind any vice the country suffers and every tragedy the public opinion hears
of, and a zealous base of supporters of Ahmed Shafiq who see stability as key
component of the country’s daily life, a stability threatened by a potential
confrontation between the Muslim brotherhood and the Supreme Council of Armed
Forces.
Regardless
of the fuss raised about the secret agendas and the hidden hands, one thing
remains certain: Egypt is in downwards financial, social and political slide,
and that is far from being an unseen and dubious course of events. The
President, in a challenge not only to prove himself a worthy figure, but in a
confrontation as well that will shape the future of the Political Islamism
across the MENA region, can only thrive for a solid consolidation of his
victory through the accomplishment of highly valued successes internationally,
and most importantly on the domestic arena.
I will
develop a set of arguments and ideas about the future decisions that ought to
be taken in the fields of economics, politics, military and religion in order
to insure a peaceful transition towards democracy for a nation that spilled
enough blood to buy its dignity and prosperity back from decades of tyranny.
Economy:
Being the
27th greatest economy with a GDP flirting with the 530 Billion $ is
something to be proud of, yet endangering the nation’s wealth and input has
become the key concern for the Egyptian citizen, blaming the financial
collateral damages of the revolution for the downwards spiral the nation has
been experiencing on the casual streets as well as on the stock market.
The spilled
billions of $, along with the damaged industries and slowed production has
merged to establish an unsustainable financial situation that puts at risk the
political credibility of the new leadership and questions the very necessity of
the revolution in the first place.
Looking
back at the nature of the country, its past focal industries and the
professional sector its universities produces, one can lay a working scheme for
how the nation ought to operate its economy in order to boost its GDP and
consolidate its revolution with a flourishing democracy propelled by promising financial
records.
1.
The Nile:
Aiming at economic
development cannot acquire its credibility unless the fuel to power plants, to
fire machines and to melt iron can be secured. Providing electricity for the
hungry fuel-consuming industries must be a priority for chief economic and
financial advisors for the new leadership, and doing so won’t need the
implementation of the American or Chinese natural resources exploitation
schemes. (Neither American military driven quest for oil nor Chinese diplomatic
venture in African dictatorship controlled markets). What nurtured the
civilization of the great pharaohs and what witnessed the royal naval processions
of ancient monarchs is well endowed to provide the Egyptian economy with the
necessary blood to water its veins. The mere figure of 12%[1]
is the amount of electricity produced by the Dams scattered across the Nile in
the Egyptian soil, and given the political turmoil on its southern borders,
Egypt could easily increase the figure to new records.
The 1959
Nile Waters treaty entitles Egypt to 82% of the water volume, thus restricting
the access of Cairo to the full capacity of the river’s potential electrical
output. The plans of the former Egyptian regime to increase its number of Dams along
the river have been met with furious discontent from the southern neighbors
spanning from Sudan to Ethiopia. The political conditions of Sudan and Ethiopia
now are a domestic burden prone to be exploited by an awaking power in the
North.
Sudan, now
divided into two countries since the independence of the south, is not in a
position to sustain its internal politics and economics due the loss of the
major oil reserves and to the cracking of its domestic affairs between political
unrest and social revolts. Egypt, through the offering of economic and diplomatic
assistance to Khartoum in its struggle with Southern Sudan could manage easily
to turn the currency of such business into Sudan’s acquiescence to the ventures
of Cairo in the Nile resources. Khartoum is now draining in its stockpiled petro-dollars
which are everything but eternal, and the current socio-economic conditions
warns of an imminent drought of the nation’s monetary reserves. With nothing to
sustain the efforts of war and diplomatic confrontation with Juba, Sudan will
see the extended hand of Egypt as a divine intervention which ought to be
celebrated and greeted by any necessary compromises and sacrifices.
A full
access to the Nile, even with Khartoum consent and Juba’s acquiescence due to
its abundant oil reserves and thus lack of interest in Hydro-electric power
wouldn’t be possible without Ethiopia’s approval. This challenge could be
overcome by coupling a strategy of intensifying trade relations and Egyptian expertise
exports to Addis Ababa to help develop the inexistent infrastructure and implement
industries meant to strengthen the fastest growing non-oil-dependent African economy
between 2007 and 2008[2]
(with what it brings of industrialization ties to Cairo and thus relative
dependence on it), and through a stronger US-Egyptian cooperation to counter
Chinese intrusion in Ethiopian market since it would pose a serious threat to
the water resources which Chinese economic tentacles in Africa avidly consumes.
Such
strategy, if put in place could expand Egyptian access to the Nile water over
its prescribed shares, granting greater hydro-electric capacity and wider civilian
and industrial access to the river’s waters, thus empowering furthermore the
Egyptian economy and sustaining its supplies of fuel through a consolidated
electrical generation through the Nile waters.
To be continued...
Next: More subtopics to be covered in Economy: Industrialization, Tourism, Services and Gulf investments
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