tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-69848946887768776592024-03-13T17:31:06.177+01:00International Affairs on the EdgeLeading revolutions is no longer the sacred duty of leaders, it is now becoming a collective investment and a cooperative action which puts each and everyone of us in the position of appreciating what couldn't have been reached otherwise with scattered efforts. Time has come to detach oneself from the need of getting credit for every endeavor initiated, and start thinking in this revolutionary template of social movement capacity of creating change.Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.comBlogger77125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-88025474165572560412013-11-02T09:39:00.003+01:002013-11-02T09:39:45.367+01:00Gulf Elite #3<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Our 3rd issue for Gulf Elite is now live!<br />
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-32153949237621020852013-10-04T12:42:00.002+02:002013-10-04T12:42:55.208+02:00Gulf Elite Magazine #2<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-72047942897915230032013-07-06T22:50:00.002+02:002013-07-06T23:22:34.735+02:00Why I say No to the military coup<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">With no introductions, here is my personal take on the Egyptian
recent developments:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Well I disagree with the way they brought Morsi down; if it's
going to be a democracy, then let the impeachment be through the voting
ballots, not through military coup in a country divided heavily. It is easy to
miscalculate what a majority is when we use as references pictures of thousands
or millions marching and chanting against the president, but truth be said,
millions in a country of 80 million individual is far from statistically
meaning anything.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Even if scores of the population went down against Morsi, he
still have as many supporting him, and throwing the votes of the millions who
voted for the Islamist president down the trash is not only a slap against what
democracy is standing for, but is also an open invitation for direct
confrontations that can easily escalate into a civil war. Indeed brotherhood
failed in dealing with several issues of economic or political nature, but
isn’t it the case for most democracies and political governing systems
throughout the world? The day an elected government manages to tackle all
domestic challenges and successfully address them, then we’d have achieved that
utopia no one talks about except in books of fiction. A military take over and
mass detentions of Brotherhood figures doesn’t seem to be an achievement of a
popular will, but most likely seems to be a rushed reaction to deal with an
uneasy transition, and most likely to cause an even greater crisis given the
stigmatization it has brought against Political Islamism and the alienation of
a segment of the population’s will or political choice.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Some may argue that the political environment, as well as the
judicial and institutional realities of Egypt may have prevented a democratic
action to impeach the president or to bring on early elections, but let us
remember that the Egyptian people were the ones voting for Morsi in the first
place, and the ones taking on their disapproval to the street didn’t allow the
president elect a fair period at the helm of the government to actually produce
results. One year is not enough to judge a president (that is why in most
democracies presidential terms span through 3 to 5 years), especially someone
who took office after a revolution, an economy in the red and security in
jeopardy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Egyptians may have set the bar too high, and it's impossible for
a president or a government to fix everything an entire chaotic country the
first months, Transitions are hard and demanding, but Egyptians appear to
forget that the nation is gathering itself out of a regime meltdown and is in a
re-evaluation phase where all principles of governance and political
institutions are put under scrutiny and reconstruction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Maybe the Muslim brotherhood is not that good in many respects,
but the reality is that they are the most organized and they won the elections.
If the Egyptians are against them, then let them show it through political
parties and political participation; <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">The best way to oppose some political or ideological organization
in a democracy is to organize and face them in the battlefield, aka the
elections; making a mess, encouraging anarchy or getting the military involved
never solves anything but just brings the country to the brinks of a civil war.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Many you argue with tend to delegitimize the popularity of the
Muslim Brotherhood by invoking that their supporters are mostly residents of rural
areas and are not fully aware of the Brotherhood’s lack of good governance and
whatnot, yet this argument seems closes to a self-condemnation because the very
people who preach it disregard an important question: If the rural areas are so
blinded into voting for the devil himself, then why didn’t the previous regime
or the numerous NGOs set a comprehensive framework to spread awareness to rural
areas or improve their living conditions as to draw them away from the
Brotherhood’s grip? It is easy to point fingers, find excuses, and fall into a
state of arrogance where we categorize a segment of the population as worthy of
the right to choose their political representatives while denying it to others.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">What is alarming in the current Egyptian crisis is the far
reaching implications it has on the MENA region and the Sahel. Political Islam
has always been stigmatized because of its tendency to promote violence and
preach a bloody agenda of extremism, ultra-conservatism and anti-human rights
policies, yet when the Political Islam renounced violence in the post Arab
Spring through the participation of Islamist factions in the political life
(something they have been banned from doing), the reaction from the street and
from a certain segment of the population has been outright rejection of their
legitimacy and reactionary refusal of an agenda they didn’t even have the
chance to assess because of the many prejudices held against it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Political Islam now is being given another excuse to lose hope
in democracy and democratic tools of participation. The rule of law, although
preached and professed to be for everyone now appears to be an exclusive right
of the secular, the liberal and is forbidden for Islamist models of rule. This
leaves no other means for the Islamist to voice their opinions and shape
politics other than through violence, which is why the West, championed by the
US is reluctant on approving of the military’s move given the disastrous
implications it can set in motion in the future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">After Algeria and Palestine, Egypt joins the club of countries
where the military unlawfully deposed a democratically elected government shaped
by Political Islamist agendas, and the consequences as in these nations is a
return of extremist violence, something which we already started witnessing in
the Sinai where armed operations against the military are being conducted by
Islamist factions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Closing TV channels to prevent the Brotherhood from decrying the
military takeover, rounding up their key figures and claiming that major cities
are the only representative of the Egyptian will stems from a fear that Political
Islam may become the key force driving politics and Egyptian domestic affairs,
a turn event that is far from making the strongholds of corruption happy, and
is sure to threaten the economic empire of the military as it did in Turkey
with the AKP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Egypt is in a turning point, and much of the region’s future
development will be shaped by what actions are set in action in Egypt during
the crisis. Be it a civil war, a return to armed confrontations, a
radicalization of the Muslim brotherhood and its operations or a return to
civilian rule through the restoration of the president elect are all potential
outcomes that can either build or break modern Egyptian democracy, or at least
the nation’s stability and security. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: right; text-autospace: none;">
<b><span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "Lucida Grande"; font-size: 13pt;">Mohamed
Amine Belarbi</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-48564781611526770162013-04-28T11:38:00.001+02:002013-04-28T11:42:13.272+02:00When Chemical weapons and terrorist groups are better excuses<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b>Syria's Chemical Weapons are a true "game changer" for international terrorism</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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The last few weeks have been
generous in events and catastrophes, from the Boston bombings to the Iraqi
bloodshed, from the attack in Libya against the French embassy to the Somali
terror wave and the Iranian devastating earthquake, yet the landmark that has
been highly overlooked and is of critical importance is the suspected use of
chemical weapons in Syria. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02547/Video_purports_to__2547092c.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02547/Video_purports_to__2547092c.jpg" width="400" /></a>The French, British and
Israeli intelligence community were affirmative in proclaiming that Assad’s
regime indeed had recourse to chemical weapons against the rebels, and the
allegations were soon to be followed by several pictures of Syrian casualties
presenting symptoms of chemical poisoning which the White House deemed possible
yet not supported by clear and irrevocable evidences. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Deemed a “red line” not to
be crossed and a “game changer” by Obama, the systematic use of chemical
weapons by the Syrian regime seems to be a victorious challenge to the current
administration who cannot but push away the red line further, hoping that Assad
would deign cross it and save the US another humiliating and embarrassing
stance. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Yet…<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As much as it seem that a
potential intervention is unlikely giving the cautious rhetoric of Washington,
the events on the ground suggest a wholly different approach. The US has
witnessed the last week a convening of various Arab leaders who, by coincidence
or design, have been scheduled in the oval office for private talks with the
president at around the same time period. From the Emirati crown prince of Abu
Dhabi to the leaders of Qatar and Jordan, the choice Obama made is highly
strategic since these countries are the main regional players in the Syrian
conflict, described by Fox News as “believed to be arming or training the rebel
forces that are seeking to overthrow the Syrian government”<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
in a recent article tackling the meetings Obama held with the aforementioned
leaders.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/media/images/photographs/2013-UAE-Obama.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="173" src="http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/media/images/photographs/2013-UAE-Obama.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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The timing of the meetings
and the announcement of the usage of Chemical weapons by the Syrian government
suggest a covert preparation for an imminent action in Syria. If the evidence
about a determinate US plan to intervene military against Assad are blurry, the
arguments for such action are not lacking with regards to US interests and
national security imperatives.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The chemical weapons
stockpiled in Syria are significant in numbers, to the extent that it is
believed and assessed by various intelligence communities that “The Syrians
have one of the largest chemical weapons arsenals in the world.”<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Chemical weapons are the main source of alarm for the international community
when it comes to the Syrian conflict, first because of the prevalent presence
of Al Qaeda affiliates in the battle ground and their noted superiority in
combat and organization, and second because of the ease of use and deployment
of chemical weapons in terrorist incidents as in the 1995 subway Tokyo attacks.<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Al Nusra rebel front,
one of the most powerful factions battling Assad’s regime and by far its most
radical, didn’t hide its allegiance to Al Qaeda as not only a small part of the
network, but as significant enough to rush the Al Qaeda in Iraq into a merger
with the Islamist jihadist cell. The merger was announced by Abu Bakr
Al-Baghdadi, head of the Islamic state in Iraq, who proclaimed: "We
announce the abolition of the Islamic state of Iraq's name and Jabhat
Al-Nusra's name and their amalgamation in one state under one name: The Islamic
state in Iraq and the Levant."<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The news stirred a wide
controversy regarding the armament of Syrian rebels, an armament pursued with
eagerness by Qatar and Co who cannot wait to see Assad regime falling apart.
Yet the issue of channeling the weapons to the right people is of little
concern compared to the chemical weapons acquisition. The weapons delivered to
the Syrian rebellion are of tactical use and have a low range of destruction,
aimed primarily at inducing small-scale, targeted damage, while the chemical
stockpile of the Syrian government contains primarily Sarin, a nerve gas agent
that can spread over large areas and induce quick death through inhalation.<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn5" name="_ftnref5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
(The Tokyo subway attack stands witness to the deadly effect of Sarin that
claimed the lives of 13 Japanese in 1995).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The ambitions of Al Nusra
front, and of Al Qaeda de facto, to control and lay hand on chemical nerve
agents is no news, yet how close the group is to attain such goal is alarming,
and indeed helps explain the sense of urgency the intervention in Syria is
prompting in the corridors of the White House.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In a recent article in the
Telegraph, Colin Freeman writes:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>The fight for al-Safira is no ordinary turf war,
however, and the prize can be found behind the perimeter walls of the
heavily-guarded military base on the edge of town. Inside what looks like a
drab industrial estate is one of Syria's main facilities for producing chemical
weapons - and among its products is sarin, the lethal nerve gas that the regime
is now feared to be deploying in its bid to cling to power.<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn6" name="_ftnref6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[6]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The prospects of the
Chemical weapons falling in the hands of extremist groups are recognized to be
not only a domestic threat, but also a severe security breach for all regional
actors including Israel and the Arab nations. Most probably the chemical
weapons would be directed towards the spots where Al Qaeda is mostly present
and where the odds for success are in the group’s favor. Iraq, with its weekly
ever rising toll of deaths and attacks, would be the first country outside of
Syria where the Sarin nerve agent would be deployed given the ability of the Al
Qaeda operatives to smuggle the stockpiles into the wrecked country. Securing
the chemical weapons is the priority of al Nusra front, and Syria as it stands
now is not a safe haven to safeguard the precious prize. The need to move the
chemical weapons to Iraq, if ever recovered by extremist cells, is apparent
since the deployment of Sarin gas doesn’t need to be in large proportions. The
rationing of the Chemical weapons into mobile portable loads carried by
individuals for targeted locations is the modus operandi Al Qaeda would adopt
given the restricted access it might have to the substance, and from then on
the branching out of the chemical agent would take effect until tracking the
initial containers becomes a futile intelligence efforts. The network of
dormant cells Al Qaeda manages throughout the MENA region and beyond makes from
the acquisition of nerve agent a true “game changer” in international
terrorism.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although many would
recall the scandal of the “inexistent” Iraqi WMDs to refute the Chemical
weapons excuse to intervene in Syria, the difference today is that we are faced
with a situation where WMDs existence is not debated but held as a fact. The
Syrian Chemical weapon stockpiles and the omnipresence of Al Qaeda affiliates
in the battlefield is not debatable, and the recent battles ranging near
military bases harboring nerve agents production and stockpiling facilities
hint clearly to the possibility that a catastrophe situation might rise at any
moment, a catastrophe where later containment is not an option.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many have started
calling for a more strategic approach towards supporting the Syrian rebellion,
and it is now more than ever critical to adopt such a strategy if we are to
avoid the unpleasant occurrence of a nerve agent attack in an Iraqi mall or a
Lebanese public square. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.imemc.org/attachments/dec2012/syriachemicalweaponsmap21.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://www.imemc.org/attachments/dec2012/syriachemicalweaponsmap21.jpg" width="320" /></a>Judging from the
available mappings of Syrian chemical facilities, most installations trail
along the western border with Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea. This
geographical occurrence is of high strategic importance: The necessity to
control these facilities is easier since most rebel secured areas lay on the
western part of the country, and a potential intervention from regional or
international corps launched from Lebanon and the Mediterranean shores will
allow a quick takeover of the chemical plants to secure and systematically
destroy the nerve agents. The establishments of no-fly zone partly over Syria,
and specifically over the Western border will enable a constant monitoring of
the facilities and an instantaneous response if hostile groups are seen
entering the bases. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aXmm5TVPE2E/UTo6P5dLHRI/AAAAAAAABOo/7VO5brHx2I4/s1600/syria_uprising_2013-03-08.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="330" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aXmm5TVPE2E/UTo6P5dLHRI/AAAAAAAABOo/7VO5brHx2I4/s400/syria_uprising_2013-03-08.png" width="400" /></a>Moreover, the
differing strength of Al Nusra group and the more liberal rebellious factions
suggests that the commanders in chief of the free Syrian Army should redirect
their efforts and progressions towards the Western border to help secure the
stockpiles of chemical weapons, leaving the battle for Damascus and the most
costly fights for Al Nusra faction in order to undermine the capabilities of
the group and let it bear most casualties and damages in an effort to overtake
it financially and logistically in the post-Assad Syria. The redeployment of the
free Syrian army fully in the Western part of the country, leaving the Deir
Ezor and eastern Aleppo area for the Al Nusra Group will help mildly separate the
two rebellious groups and facilitate the directed armament and logistical provision
to the Free Syrian army instead of blindly empowering both factions.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Libyan downfall
and the following dispersion of vast amounts of artillery in the region have
had a direct effect on facilitating the Malian crisis emergence and AQMI rearmament.
Today we are faced with an even more devastating type of weaponry in an area
known for its high volatility. The consequences of Chemical weapons falling in
the wrong hands will inevitably set new standards for terrorist activities, and
will have far reaching impacts regionally and internationally. This is a “game
changer” whose significance the US administration and the Arab governments
understand very well, therefore the necessity for intervention has turned from
a debate into a consensual agreement whose first signals were the series of
meetings with Middle Eastern leaders in Washington, and whose ultimate ending
will be a dramatic military action in Syria; the road to the final action is
and remains convincing an ever skeptical public opinion, a conviction that
seems all too well settling down after a tragic set of events that shook the
public consciousness and laid a state of fear we have so many times encountered
before major military implications in foreign countries.<i><o:p></o:p></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: right; text-autospace: none;">
<b>Mohamed Amine Belarbi<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div>
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<br />
<div id="ftn1">
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> <span style="font-family: Arial;">Read more: <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/16/obama-meets-with-emirati-crown-prince-first-in-series-meetings-with-mideast/#ixzz2Rk014VJQ"><span style="color: #051b8e; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/16/obama-meets-with-emirati-crown-prince-first-in-series-meetings-with-mideast/#ixzz2Rk014VJQ</span></a></span>”<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> https://medium.com/today-in-syria/b9e9411a7429<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3">
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarin_gas_attack_on_the_Tokyo_subway<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22078022<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref5" name="_ftn5" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[5]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/25/17917132-how-deadly-nerve-gas-sarin-kills?lite<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref6" name="_ftn6" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[6]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10022753/Syria-Al-Qaedas-battle-for-control-of-Assads-chemical-weapons-plant.html<o:p></o:p></div>
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-36209947672783333442013-03-29T11:59:00.000+01:002013-03-29T11:59:26.518+01:00Time for business-executive politics in the MENA region<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="text-align: left;"><b>Time for the technocrats to take over in the Arab World</b></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For decades Arab politics has been an easy ride for the
well-established circles that governed states and countries in the MENA region.
Whether it is by virtue of blood as in monarchies, money as in oligarchies or
simply heavily organized lobbies with a deceiving democratic penchant, the
politics our representatives and god appointed leaders engaged in, or lack
thereof, has not seen much trepidations or dynamics that would enact a
managerial paradigm shift. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Until the outburst of the Arab Spring…</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://oneway2day.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/arab-spring.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="291" src="http://oneway2day.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/arab-spring.jpg" width="320" /></a>Dictators ousted, oligarchs lynched and awry political
institutions brought to a demise, it is more than ever critical to rethink how
political engagement and leadership is meant to operate, not because it is now
a privilege the Arab societies can afford, but because a transition post Arab
Spring to liberal economies and democratic statehood cannot take effect in such
a rapidly changing world as the 21<sup>st</sup> century. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many could argue that the MENA region is in a natural phase
of adaptation to the new realities the street pulse imposed, others would draw
the parallel with the French revolution and the consequential bloody transition
it endured before evolving into a democracy, yet that would have been the case
if we were witnessing a corporate-like adaptation to new consumerism behavior;
the reality is that we are now contemplating a damage-control and
crisis-containment situation instead of a painful transition forward. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Politics is deeply linked to economics as Karl Marx rightly
pointed out in his “Economic Determinism”, and in today’s world, this is even
more true given how international trade, politics, business and domestic state
management have all molded a unique and fragile system that can be impaired if
one of its component goes bust. What I am trying to explain is that the economic
environment the Arab Spring imposed on post revolutionary states has made any
attempt for democratization unsustainable and non-viable in the short run. Economic
recession, plundered foreign currency reserves, soaring unemployment rates and
foreign deposits withdrawal are all a deadly recipe that hinders political
success and sends approval rates down the pipes. It might seem as if economic
troubles are a core part of a democratic transition, yet in a world where
economic development is scoring a two digit growth in most parts of the
developing world, financial hurdles coupled with political instability just
makes it impossible for a country to recover and catch up in time with the
speeding train. The public opinion is strikingly showcasing such phenomenon in
Egypt and Tunisia where the economics didn’t add up for the casual citizen,
bringing the masses from protest to protest with no clear vision of when it
will all work as planned when the uprising was structured in the popular
consciousness. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The stigma of political affiliation is not making things any
easier for recovery. The ideological identity of the various representatives
and institutions makes it hard for the public opinion to objectively assess the
actions of the leadership, and to allow the state management to take due
course. Whether it is the Muslim brotherhood, the seculars or the old regime
affiliates, labels are not failing to bring down political efforts to wrap up
the mess left behind the uprising. This leads to a state management that focuses
not on credentials building, but on active defense of reputations and records
from the stinging criticism of the public and from rapacious political
opponents who capitalize on the failures of the state. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This allows us to formulate an understanding of the
challenges the post Arab Spring imposes, and the potential nature of the
solutions that can address such impediments. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The identity stigmatization is best resolved by the adoption
of a technocrat system of governance that strips the decision makers from any
political or ideological affiliation. A technocrat, not tied as much to
approval rates, ideological bias or future political ambitions, can indeed
channel more efforts into drafting legislations and tackling the nation’s most
pressing issues. Technocrats also have the ability to better resolve the
ongoing crisis given their expertise in their respective fields and ability to
exploit their professional networks to stir solutions based on third party
involvement and contribution. The educated businessman can indeed reach out to
the business community and lay a framework for investment that is not tied to a
certain political favoritism. The technocrat also, if drawn from the new school
of business executives can take choices that lift the economy, education and
health upwards regardless of the short-term discontent it creates. The
technocrats in short do their job because they are cashing on managerial
efficiency, not on political gaming.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many see the necessity for well-established frameworks,
figures and institutions as a pre requisite for state management, yet the
importation of the business executives modus operandi to legislative decision
making can prove to be a successful undertaking given its enormous impact on
actually achieving results, regardless of the ethical reasoning one might have
about its collaterals. What the Arab world needs right now are parachuted
technocrats, business minded executives who will not stem from the political infertile
cultivation fields, but from the likes of Harvard Business school or NYU stern.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What the people want and will always look for is not decent
political etiquette, but rather palpable results that can ensure the growth of
a prosperous middle class and thriving investment and entrepreneurial ecosystem,
although both tend to converge at a certain point. Dubai is a good example of
how business minded state management and state capitalism does lead to a
prosperous society. Nothing ensures stability and socio economic development
like beaming business confidence. If a country knows how to conduct business,
then investments, international loans, deposits, economic growth and foreign
currency reserves beautifully play along. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and hopefully Syria, when the massacre
comes to an end, ought to follow the governance trend that is driving the
developing world into a surge of growth and progress. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://images.alarabiya.net/44/44/640x392_93537_257395.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="245" src="http://images.alarabiya.net/44/44/640x392_93537_257395.jpg" width="400" /></a>Politics today means business, and those who still want to
run countries in the old fashioned way are doomed to a slow and painful death. The
train of development doesn’t wait for political reform or ideological fights
over power; neither does it choose which stations to stop at. The most critical
part is that todays’ train is not the old steam powered vehicle of yesterday,
but is a supersonic piece of engineering that cannot be caught up with if
missed. What seems to be a right and virtuous struggle for political justice in
various Arab countries is an economic suicide in the making, because if one
cannot afford a job that puts a piece of bread on his table, little would he
earn from going to the street protesting his right for political inclusion in
the decision making. There is a moral in labor division, and that is
efficiency. If we cannot let the people most qualified for a job take on their
responsibilities, and attempt to indulge in fields we have no credentials for,
then all we are doing is luring ourselves into a big deception. Stigmatizing
technocrats as neo-oligarchs, heartless businessmen, financiers or top down
executives is a hobby most of us are good at, but getting the job done is duty
we fail at terrifically.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is time for politics to be conducted like a business, not
like a Machiavellian art of alchemy that needs not to be stained with modern
world ways of operating. It is time for politicians in the Arab world to go out
from their ivory towers and excel in public speaking, pitching, business
planning, languages mastery and deals closing the same way their western
counterparts are doing… Because those who write bills are Bain Capital, Exxon
and JP Morgan, not some old Winston Churchill smoking a cigar and gazing at a
massive globe next to his desk. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<b>Mohamed Amine Belarbi<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-20750162458624579162013-03-15T15:32:00.002+01:002013-03-15T20:55:38.884+01:00Reforms or Continuity? Pope Francis says Amen to both!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span style="color: white;">Roman Catholic Church on the crossroads of Continuity and Reform:</span></b></div>
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<b><span style="color: white;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><b> </b><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 13pt;">With
the announcement of the new head of the catholic church, now is the time to
reflect on what are the signals the Vatican is giving to its followers and
observers through the new appointment, and what are the policies that will be
enacted in order to seal a new chapter in the long turbulent history of the 1.2
billion adepts strong borderless empire.</span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://media.salon.com/2013/03/vatican-pope.jpeg51-1280x960.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: white;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://media.salon.com/2013/03/vatican-pope.jpeg51-1280x960.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">The
start of a new page in the life of the Catholic Church cannot be discussed
without a quick review of the period preceding it, namely the numerous scandals
that rocked the very foundations of the Vatican. From the sex scandals
involving priests and cardinals, to the financial fraudulent transactions
undertaken by the “Bank of God”, to the shady disclosures of the relationship
between the Vatican and Mussolini, the Catholic Church has had its share of
downturns that didn’t go without impacting its credibility and reputation. It
is thus understandable that a radical change was a critical necessity to re-brand
the Church, and that the best way to go about such venture is to ultimately
change the very icon of it: the pope. This reminds the casual observer of a
similar undertaking in the US, where the election of a new African American
president with an appealing charisma to the minorities, the Muslims and the
East in general helped reconcile the US with the international community, and
allowed it to regain its attractiveness on the world stage.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">The
difference between the US presidential election and the papal appointment is
that, unlike in the US, the pope indeed exercises vast power and command over
the policies of the Roman Catholic church, with not much constraints posed by
the complex of cardinals and priests scattered inside the Holy See or
throughout the globe. It is thus uncontestable that the election of a new head
of church is not an aesthetic change but a true shift in the direction of the
Christian Institution, a shift that will ultimately reflect the hopes, fears,
beliefs and ideological biases of the new pope Francis. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.1326361.1363297511!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_600/image.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: white;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_fs/1.1326361.1363297511!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/box_600/image.jpg" width="400" /></span></a><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">A
quick look at the background of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio already sends a
wave of disappointment among the advocates of a 21<sup>st</sup> century liberal
Church. The Argentinian cardinal’s position on same sex marriage for example
leaves the growing numbers of Christian reformists with a bitter taste for the
future of their God appointed government. In a letter dated June 2010, the
cardinal doesn’t hide his resentment for the changing legal meaning of
marriage, extended to include homosexual marriage, and makes it clear to his
network of churches and priests in Argentina that fighting the popularization
of the LGBT rights ought to be a divine quest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">The New York Times correctly pointed out the conservative nature
of the Pope Francis in a recent article: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">“A
doctrinal conservative, Francis has opposed liberation theology, abortion, gay
marriage and the ordination of women, standing with his predecessor in holding
largely traditional views.”<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 13pt;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> The background check, led by various
journalists, does unveil more about the convictions and deeds of Pope Francis. Not
only isn’t the new pope a great fan of homosexuals, but he isn’t either a fan
of human rights delegation if we believe the rumors and the article </span><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2011/jan/04/argenitina-videla-bergoglio-repentance?CMP=twt_gu" style="font-size: 13pt;"><span style="color: #343434; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Hugh
O'Shaughnessy</span></a><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> wrote in the Guardian in 2011. Pope Francis, according to the author, </span><span style="font-size: 17px;">allegedly</span><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> participated in hiding political prisoners victims of the “Dirty War” from a
visiting commission of human rights.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">Although
Pope Francis’s past might convey a gloomy picture, it is nonetheless
irresponsible to make precipitated judgments on the likelihood of the path the
new pope will drive the church into. The papacy will ultimately affect the
stances of the new pope given the enormous responsibility it imposes on its
leader, and given the growing liberal aspirations of the Church followers
without whom the Holy See would be pointless, and note, go bankrupt.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="http://geographica.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Catholiques-Rome.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="color: white;"><img border="0" height="218" src="http://geographica.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Catholiques-Rome.jpg" width="320" /></span></a><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">The
decision of the conclave to elect Jorge Mario Bergoglio is indeed a reflection
of the new image the Vatican is trying to paint to the world, and what better
way to do that than to appoint the first non European, Latino pope in the
history of the Roman Catholic church? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">Prior
to the decision, the very resignation of the pope Benedict was a clear sign of
the new currents unraveling in the Vatican, and his emphasis on “so many rapid
changes” and “shaken” in his resignation speech streamlines the life crisis the
Catholic Church is going through:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<i><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">“I am well aware that
this ministry, due to its essential spiritual nature, must be carried out not
only with words and deeds, but no less with prayer and suffering. However, in
today’s world, subject to so many rapid changes and shaken by questions of deep
relevance for the life of faith, in order to govern the bark of Saint Peter and
proclaim the Gospel, both strength of mind and body are necessary, strength
which in the last few months, has deteriorated in me to the extent that I have
had to recognize my incapacity to adequately fulfill the ministry entrusted to
me.”<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span style="font-size: 13pt;">[2]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">It
is thus unmistakable that the reformative prophecy Pope Benedict envisioned for
his institution had to be enacted in order to preserve the “relevance” of the
Vatican in today’s world. This relevance was sustained through the election of
a Latin American cardinal, sending a strong message that the Church values its
adepts in the South, which accounts for a great deal of the Christendom. This
point didn’t go unnoticed, and even Obama made sure to reiterate its relevance
and importance in a congratulatory note to the pope:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
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<i><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">“As the first pope
from the Americas, his selection also speaks to the strength and vitality of a
region that is increasingly shaping our world, and alongside millions of
Hispanic Americans, those of us in the United States share the joy of this
historic day.”<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span style="font-size: 13pt;">[3]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">The
internationalism of the Roman Catholic Church reverberates a strong belief that
the Vatican is now stretching its appeal beyond the European fortress, and is
indeed enlarging its reach in a geographical spot where loyalty to the Catholic
Institution was challenged by various evangelical churches. This not only
boosts the influence of the Roman Catholic Church in Latin America, but also
attends to its financial crisis that pushed its bank along Banco Ambrosiano to
fall prey to the appeal of fraudulent activities linking it to money laundering
and early financial entanglement with the Italian Fascist leader Mussolini.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://episcopaldigitalnetwork.com/ens/files/2013/03/ens_031413_pope.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="color: white;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://episcopaldigitalnetwork.com/ens/files/2013/03/ens_031413_pope.jpg" width="257" /></span></a><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">Another
signal the pope Francis sends to the world is the cutting with financial
elitism inside the walls of the Vatican. The speculated wealth of the Holy See,
its banking activities, its corruption scandals and the excessive luxury and
overspending charges against its personnel didn’t fail to create an outrage
against the Catholic Church, an outrage that the Humble and modest Francis will
surely silence given his background, and surely his name significance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: 13.0pt;">All
in all, the conservative approach of the pope Francis to sensitive matters,
along with the grand reformative, if not strategic vision that his election bears
to the outside observer sets the Roman Catholic Church in an interesting path
of Continuity and reforms. Amen. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: right;">
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span style="color: white;">Mohamed Amine Belarbi</span></div>
<hr size="1" style="text-align: left;" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<br />
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<span style="color: white;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/world/europe/cardinals-elect-new-pope.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<span style="color: white;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b4d86704-743b-11e2-80a7-00144feabdc0.html<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3">
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<span style="color: white;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/world/europe/cardinals-elect-new-pope.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-37075415921981136402013-03-14T12:40:00.000+01:002013-03-14T12:40:05.300+01:00TURKEY—‘A MUCH NEEDED MIDDLE EASTERN POWER?’<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<i style="text-align: left;"><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">The first major
victory of the Seljuk Turks over the forces of the declining Byzantine Empire
at the battle of Manzikert on 26th August 1071, gave prominence to the Turkic
peoples especially those associated with Osman the great Turkish Muslim
warrior. These peoples later became known as the Ottoman Turks or </span></i><i style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Osmanlılar</span></i><i style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">
</span></i><i style="text-align: left;"><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">(</span></i><i style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Turkish
for “those associated with Osman”)</span></i><i style="text-align: left;"><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">.</span></i></div>
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<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">Like the battle of </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Gaugamela</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> in 331BC, in which Alexander ‘<i>the great</i>’‘ dealt a crushing blow to the
glorious Persian armies of Darius III, the Seljuk Turks or Ottomans in series
of military triumphs, dealt the final blow to what was left of Emperor
Constantine’s empire in the levant in the subjugation of Consta</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">tinople by Mehmed II in 1453. The conversion of the
<i>Hagia Sophia</i> (the capitol of orthodox
Christianity and the seat of the Patriach of Constatinople) an architectural
master piece of Athemios of Tralles and Isodorus of Miletus by the victorious
Ottomans to a mosque emphatically announced </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">t</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">he rise of another Islamic power after the decline
of the glorious age of the Arab Caliphs and Caliphates</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/Ottoman_Empire_in_Asia_since_1792.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/Ottoman_Empire_in_Asia_since_1792.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">The
Ottomans (a non-Arab Muslim people) struck a chord different to the rulership
style of their spiritual Arab brethren (the originators of Islam) in that</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">, </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">they sought a blend between the Orient and
Occident. This was clearly emphasized in the administration of Sultan Mehmed II
the Conqueror (1432-1481) to Süleyman I, The Magnificent (1494-1566), </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">S</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">ultan of the Ottoman Empire (1520-1566), during
whose reign the empire reached its zenith of power and splendour. During his
reign, the Ottomans rocked the gates of Vienna----the seat of the Hapsburgs and
lords of the Holy Roman empire.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">At a
moment when the Arabs lacked natural leadership, the Ottomans (Spiritual
Bethren of the majority Arab Muslim middle east)</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">,</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> proved a congruous force in bringing the middle
east at par with advances of the ever seeking dominant European powers. The Ottomans
were able to effectively administer their heterogenous religious and ethnic
populations with minimal issues of tensions among the various subjugated
peoples.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span></b><b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">A PATH TO
DECLINE<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">In
signing the treaty of Karlowitz in 1699, the Ottoman Empire began to tread the
path of a steady decline and non-relevance in international politics</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">;</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> and by the end the first world war in 1918, the
Ottoman empire was in ruins! All subjugated peoples of the empire had gotten
their agitation for independence and Constatinople (the Seat of Ottoman power)
was under Allied (British, French and U.S) occupation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ti-NCjKvDr0/T48dMH0gndI/AAAAAAAAA4o/CrroR7heMi0/s1600/Atat%C3%BCrk6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="254" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ti-NCjKvDr0/T48dMH0gndI/AAAAAAAAA4o/CrroR7heMi0/s320/Atat%C3%BCrk6.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">At the
moment of Ottoman desperation, a vanguard for Turkic liberation arose in
Mustafa Kemal who in his <i>nationalistic
fervour</i> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">revoked the </span><i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Treaty of Sèvres</span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> and pushed the Allied
occupation force out of Constatinople. Abolishing what was left in the 623 year
rule of the Ottoman Sultanate in deposition of Mehmed IV Vhadettin, Turkey
became a republic on November 1, 1922. Mustafa Kemal, later known as Ataturk (Father
of the Turks) instituted revolutionary reforms in his new found republic among
which are:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -0.25in;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0/clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Andalus, serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">The abolishment of </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Andalus, serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">the Sultanate and Caliphate (making Turkey a republic),</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -0.25in;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0/clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Andalus, serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">The ban on the wearing of Islamic dress in public
(the fez cap and the hijab)</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -0.25in;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0/clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Andalus, serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">The separation of religion from state.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -0.25in;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0/clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Andalus, serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">The Latinization of the alphabetical characters
used in writing the Turkish language—a departure from the use of Arabic
alphabetical characters. He also de-Arabized the Turkish language.</span></li>
<li><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; text-indent: -0.25in;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0/clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Andalus, serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">The introduction of European styled canonical law
for governance.</span></li>
</ul>
<!--[if !supportLists]--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Ever
since then</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">,</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> Turkey began </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">a</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> pro-western</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> path</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> and it was no surprise when Turkey joined the western military alliance
(NATO)</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> in 1952;</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">becoming
a buffer against Soviet expansion in the Levant during the height of the cold
war.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Thus,
Turkey has been a darling to both the western powers and its Arab and Muslim
neighbours in its unique relationship with both the middle orient and the
occident. </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">N</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">o wonder Turkey
(a Muslim nation) has diplomatic relations with Israel (an unwanted entity to
most Arabs) to the tune of joint military cooperations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">From
its fall after the second world war, the population of Anatolia has witnessed a
steady rise in Muslim population while the traditional Christian population has
declined. Persecuted Muslim populations of the Caucasus found a welcoming home
in Turkey and thus the Muslim population of Turkey has swelled from over 50% in
the early 1900’s to 99%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Despite
Turkish attempts in joining the European Union after series of westernization
policies, Turkish membership has been declined in reminisce of its religious significance as a Muslim
majority nation. This may not be seen as a set back for Turkish cause as she
needs to identify her role as a bridge between the Levant and the Occident.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://euobserver.com/media/src/93a7810492e68f97480521cf51954268.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="http://euobserver.com/media/src/93a7810492e68f97480521cf51954268.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Whilst
this role was well administered by the defunct Ottoman empire in its glory
days, mordern day Turkey can draw an inspiration from its glorious Ottoman
past. Her ability to chide Israel and still maintain diplomatic sanity with the
Jewish state, walk arm in arms with the Western powers and still maintain
spiritual communion with its Arab muslim neigbours most of whom practice Sunni
Islam (the orthodox form of Islam) does lends a credence to any purported form
of Turkish dominance of levantine politics.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Whilst
Egypt, Iraq, and Syria have tried and failed trump the Arab and Muslim cause in
the middle east and Iran (a majority Shiite nation) not seen as a credible
option by most Sunni Arab Muslims, Turkey provides a worthy leadership.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">At a
time when western powers are wary of military intervention in the middle east
in the face of inconclusive battles and withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan,
there’s a vacuum for a Muslim leadership in the middle east as the Arab league
lacks clear leadership vigour in tackling the unrest in the middle east.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">As
the Syrian conflict drags unending with countless hundreds of thousands of
civilian causalities and the UN security council powers bickering their
interests rather than resolve the quagmire, the initiative beckons on Turkey</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> to front
the leadership of the Muslim middle east!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><b>Samson Faboye</b></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />
<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-84248986992219207242013-03-13T09:28:00.000+01:002013-03-14T07:25:39.621+01:00Reading beyond the Iranian Pakistani Pipeline<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Oil & Gas Pipelines: Geopolitics in the Making </b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The announcement of the construction of the 1600 Km
Iranian-Pakistani gas pipeline didn’t fail to create a true sensation in the
world of politics, let alone in the corridors of the White House. In my
previous Blog articles, I talked endlessly about the shifting geopolitical
dynamics in the Middle East and specifically in the Baluchistan Region that
includes Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, yet the theoretical rant on the rise
of the rest mainly driven by Chinese geopolitical ambitions is now
crystallizing with every tube that is being laid down between Iran and
Pakistan. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
An unfaithful ally (Pakistan) collaborating with a declared enemy
(Iran), all under the financing of the 2<sup>nd</sup> world superpower (China) will
not bring much thrust to the crippled foreign policy and strategic planning
that the US is conducting overseas, and is sure to reverse the balance of power
in the region. The Chinese backing of the pipeline is a clear act of defiance
towards Washington, because it does not only redefines the rules of the game and establishes a new standard for approval of sensitive projects in the
region, but also jeopardizes the effort of the US to tear down the Iranian
economy, and bring to a halt the suspected military nuclear program the mullahs
in Teheran are undertaking. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://i1.tribune.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/520001-PakIranPipeline-1363124929-536-640x480.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="http://i1.tribune.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/520001-PakIranPipeline-1363124929-536-640x480.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Oil and gas have long been decisive assets in determining
the outcome of geopolitical games and conflicts, and their grand power in
forging alliances and cementing collaboration is what threatens the very
strategic scheme the US has been trying to implement in AF-PAK region. Iran
has not only managed to distance Afghanistan from the US through its economic
and political support of Kabul, but is now more than ever closer to breaking the
US Pakistani alliance via its economic support of the Pakistani economy through the establishment of the pipeline that will provision Pakistan with an
additional 4000 Megawatts of electricity. A reliant Pakistan on Iranian gas provisioning
does not only ensure that Pakistan will orbit closer in the circle of Teheran,
but will also kill any potential complicity of Pakistan in a future military
action against Iran. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The Islamic Republic of Iran, though under severe sanctions and economic embargo, is playing geopolitics way better than what analysts in the
White House would have predicted, and this reinforces the fallacy of economic
sanctions on Oil economies, a fallacy that proved inefficient in Iraq and is
now blatantly failing with Iran. In a region where economic models are
byzantine and ailing, Iranian oil is a commodity that can ensure economic
growth for its neighbors through the fueling of major projects, and the
provisioning of electric coverage especially in times where social unrest is
prone to benign disturbances and popular dissatisfactions with the lack of
government-produced public goods. The US has challenged the sovereignty of
Pakistan more than once, a challenge that couldn’t be silenced through small
financial grants especially that Islamabads' cooperation with Washington on
counter terrorism has long been unrewarded. With such opportunity, Iranian
policy makers couldn’t miss on the chance to terminate US Pakistani relations
and boost Teheran influence over its neighbor in a never-ending game of dominos.
After the US in intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, both countries ended up
getting closer to the Islamic Republic, not by choice but by necessity given
the lack of long-term vision on the part of US leadership. Now after the series
of drone strikes in Pakistani soil, the storming of Ben Laden’s compound in
Abottabad and the recurrent attacks of US media and US political sphere on the
Pakistani intelligence (corruption and collaboration with hostile forces),
Pakistan cannot refuse the extended hand of Iran, an extended hand that will at
least prove to be an economic catalyst for growth and development in the mostly
rural and tribal country.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If Iran is exploiting the US foreign policy breaches in
Baluchistan, someone in the Far East is not missing on supporting the Iranian
leadership in its anti imperialistic efforts to counter Uncle Sam. Beijing,
keeping a low profile through the 90s and the 1<sup>st</sup> decade of the 21<sup>st</sup>
century, is now moving on to upholding its imposed role of event shaper in Asia
pacific, the Middle East and the Sub-Continent area, yet still without indulging
in a direct confrontational policy with the US. China has been leading a new type
of proxy warfare, a warfare not conducted with weapons and fighter jets, but
with economic packages and financial loans. Well in line with Marxist “Economic
Determinism”, Chinese officials are now realizing the true power of money in shaping
global events and molding alliances, a lesson that has long been proven effective
by the IMF and the World Bank loan programs. Financing the Gas pipeline between
Pakistan and Iran with a 500 million $ package is not an economic signal
Beijing is making, but a resonant geopolitical statement to the US that
American blessing for major projects is now obsolete, and that Chinese
interests in the region are as critical as those of the US. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.onepennysheet.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/CHINA_Sco_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="315" src="http://www.onepennysheet.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/CHINA_Sco_1.jpg" width="400" /></a>What we are witnessing is the formation of a complex network
of economic-based loyalties that China is establishing throughout South Central Asia region,
with Iran as a primary broker. The IP Pipeline, if ever achieved, will initiate
a spree of pipeline branching that will ultimately connect China to Iranian Gas
and Oil fields, making it impossible for the US to ever consider military
action against Teheran given the fact that such action will directly jeopardize
Chinese interests in the country. An economic Oil hungry giant satisfied, and a
US presence deterred is a dream becoming reality for both Iran and China who
aspire to become key regional players in the area. Iranian oil and gas capabilities
have long been undermined, and the model developing now is strikingly similar
to the case of Russian geopolitical development in the last decade. The Russian
gas empire has only recovered from its Soviet collapse trauma after developing
an extensive network of pipelines in Easter and Western Europe with the help of
business oligarchs, and what we are witnessing today in Iran is a similar
scenario, with the only difference that the Russian oligarchs are now
substituted with Chinese wealthy sovereign funds that are financing Iranian
projects.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The years to come will witness an extensive pipeline
networking throughout the South East and central Asia region, a networking that will seal forever
the US leave from the region, and will anchor the establishment of a new
balance of powers where China and Iran are the key decision makers, one signing
events with Oil and Gas, the other with piles of dollars and financial loans.
The rise of the rest is finally overcoming the initial period of economic
growth and reaching out to the geopolitical aspirations for influence and
control. A new world order is shaping up, and the US seems oblivious to these
new geopolitical equivalents to tectonic shifts. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<b>Mohamed Amine Belarbi</b></div>
<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-88900150719579432842013-02-12T14:12:00.001+01:002013-02-12T14:12:19.052+01:00Malian Crisis: A golden chance for Algerian Geopolitics<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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With the situation in Mali progressing slowly towards a
certain resolution that will be dictated by French military might, it becomes
clear that what ought to be pondered is no longer the potential defeat or
success of the intervention in Northern part of the country, but rather the
future stakes that each regional and international player will bring back home.
While French presence has been empowered more than ever by a loyal and grateful
Malian government, Algeria on the other hand is still on the crossroads of
defining its future role in Mali.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The Malian stability cannot in any way be guaranteed by a
short term military intervention, and the French support of today may no longer
be an option given the growing reluctance of the public opinion to afford
another burden on the national economy, or to indulge in another armed
conflict. The guarantor of Malian stability will with no doubt be Algeria, the
regional player that has long been at the vanguard of anti terrorism in the
Sahel region. With such responsibility comes a great deal of advantage, an
advantage that Algiers knows well can be exploited to enhance its influence and
reach not only in the Sahel, but also in the Sub-Saharan region all while
accommodating French interests. <o:p></o:p></div>
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What the Malian crisis has shown is that the Malian military
are far from being fully equipped to handle the challenges posed by domestic
threats. The inability of the central government to provide security and
stability throughout the vast territory accounts for a blatant lack of
personnel and logistics among police forces and military troops. On the other
hand, Algeria, the oil rich neighbor “most likely was the biggest military
spender in Africa in 2009 and is the world’s ninth largest importer of
weapons”. Moreover, Algeria’s military budget accounted this year for 10.3
Billion $ worth of equipment to modernize the military and boost security
capabilities.<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title="">[1]</a></span></span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><!--[endif]--></a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Instead of letting French presence shape the regional
politics and military agendas in Mali, Algeria is far more concerned with
dictating terms on its borders through influencing its neighbor by the
provisioning of support and military assistance. The French presence in Mali
might seem like a much welcomed initiative, yet as the urgency of the security
threats in Mali fades down, the French troops and intrusion will turn into a
target of criticism, speculation and even confrontation given the social,
religious and political environment surrounding the region’s state of affairs. <o:p></o:p></div>
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In order to enforce its agenda on Malian soil, Algeria will
have to distance Paris and Bamako, creating an ideological rift that will make
future support of Bamako relevant to the absurd. The way to go about such
maneuver is to play the imperialism card, both on a domestic level and on a
regional one. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/5cols/leading_images/LAR01_MALI-REBELS-ALGERIA_0114_11(1).jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="255" src="http://english.al-akhbar.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/5cols/leading_images/LAR01_MALI-REBELS-ALGERIA_0114_11(1).jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Algerian diplomacy ought to conduct extensive talks with
Malian authorities in order to warn them from a potential attempt by Paris to
set foot in the region for exploitation purposes. As Mali’s resources are being
slowly tapped into, and as the revenue from gold mining reaches new records due
to the financial setbacks in the EU economy, it becomes a plausible theory that
French presence is motivated by resources agreements and predatory agendas, a
theory Algerians know all too well how to shape given the years of antagonistic
politics they engaged Paris in.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The currency French authorities have on the table is
military coverage and security provision, a currency quite affordable in
Algerian soil. Thus, using a regional security umbrella pioneered by Algerian
troops will uproot any need for French presence. Algeria has multiple
incentives to engage in such scheme, from geopolitical ambitions for expansion
and influence, to security advantages since it will have the ability to go
after AQMI deep in Sahel soil. <o:p></o:p></div>
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On another note, Algeria has all to win from establishing
itself fiercely in the Sahel due to the increasing popularity of Touareg
dissidences. Given the precarious nature of ethnical distribution in Algeria,
it is all too probable that revolts and proclaimed partial independence in the
Sahel might fuel similar ambitions in Algeria, a prospect that the central
government in Algiers has been combatting for decades now. A greater presence
in the Sahel using Mali as a springboard will allow greater monitoring of
rebellious movements and quicker responses to crisis before they extend to
proportions that are threatening Algerian national security in its military and
social aspects. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Finally, establishing itself as the primary player in the
Sahel, Algeria gains de facto the role of the point contact in any initiatives
including western interaction with the Sahel and Sub Saharan Africa. This gives
any nation great leverage in shaping and dictating terms on the table of
negotiations, in influencing the flow of trade and natural resources
exploitation and in gaining benefits from future economic incursions by the US,
EU or China in the rich mineral market of the Sahel.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Algeria Increasing Military Spending, Defence Web, http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=28518&Itemid=118<o:p></o:p></div>
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-83171372740956894192013-01-21T12:57:00.000+01:002013-01-21T12:57:52.272+01:00Intervention in Mali: Between necessity and exploitation (Part 1)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">In order to offer our readers an insight on the current crisis originating in Mali, we are launching a 2 parts essay analysis that will help clarify the underlying motives for the Tuareg revolution in Mali, Al-Qaeda's influence in the region and the role of the international players in sculpting the outcome of the conflict.</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">The first essay, titled "</span></b><b style="text-align: center;"><span lang="YO" style="font-family: Andalus, serif;">THE INTRICACIES OF A MALIAN <i>‘AZAWADSTAN’</i> ; A RALLYING CALL FOR IMMIDIATE INTERVENTION</span></b><b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">", is a guest post by Samson Faboye from Nigeria.</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">The second essay, by Mohamed Amine Belarbi, will focus on the opportunities the crisis in Mali offers for regional and </span></b><span style="font-family: Andalus, serif;"><b>international players, as well as the way they ought to be exploited.</b></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">THE INTRICASIES OF A MALIAN <i>‘AZAWADSTAN’</i>
; A RALLYING CALL FOR IMMIDIATE INTERVENTION</span></b><b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">
</span></b><b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">"Everyone
knew this situation was coming; everyone knew that AQIM was present in the
region; everyone knew that the Tuareg rebellion from 2008 in Mali had not been
decapitated. And yet the Malians did not act."</span></i><i><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">.......</span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> Bazoum Mohammed, Niger's foreign minister.</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">The situation in
Northern Mali, where a rebellion by Tuaregs and Islamic Militants declaring a <i>‘liberated Azawad’</i> in the North of Mali and then pushing to the government controlled South, has alarmed the
international community, particularly France. F</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">rom the dust raised in the </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21023219"><span style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">recent clash</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> between the Malian Military
and extremist Islamic Militant groups</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">;</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> top of which </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">is the</span><i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">
‘<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18814291">Ansar Dine</a> and
Mujao’</span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">, </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">both are thought be part of an
extensive network of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">- </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">though having different
ideologies</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> as against the Tuareg rebels of Northern Mali,</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> the rebellious forces united for a
cause---‘shaking off Northern Mali or Azawad from Malian control’. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">The vast arid North of Mali (an area the
size of France) is covered by the Sahara and is populated by the Tuaregs (a
normadic people who live in Mali, Algeria, Libya, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and
Niger). Seen as light skinned (though they are called the ‘blue people’)
they’ve complained of marginalization in their respective countries of
residence. As such the Tuaregs have fought several rebellious wars against the
government of Niger, Algeria and Mali.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Despite the separatist intrigues of the
Tuaregs in the Sahara, their rebellions have been quelled by force and
negotiations over the years by respective governments they rebelled against.
However</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">,</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> a </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17192212"><span style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">statement</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> made by the foreign minister
of Niger at the recent Bamako summit</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> in October 2012</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> host</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">ed</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> to resolve the Malian crises</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">, </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">show</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">s</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> that all is not well with
Mali, especially the </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18723035"><span style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">city that hosts tomb of 333 saints</span></a></span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> (<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17583772">Timbuktu</a>)</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">! And even her neighbours are
alarmed by this dawning gruelling fact.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">The rebel held Azawad or Northern Mali is
already at a phase of derelict lawlessness and there are fears that </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">it </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">may become Africa’s
Afghanistan or Pakistan’s Swat valley…hence the name <i>‘Azawadstan’!</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Among the issues calling for action in
Northern Mali are:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-18723035"><span style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">The clash</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> between Tuareg separatist
rebels (MNLA) and Islamist militants.
Though having variant ideologies, these groups united to kick out the Malian
army </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">from </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Azawad.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">The destruction of
‘mausoleums’ and tombs of Islamic scholars in Timbuktu—regarded as a world
heritage site by the UN.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">The unhindered operation of
Islamic militant groups especially (Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) who are
turning Northern Mali to</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> a</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">
base or training facility for launching attacks in neighbouring states.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Most concerned is the Nigerien
government, who fear that the Malian instability might just precipitate in
their country and serve a dist</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">i</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">ll</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">e</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">ry for instability </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">in</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> the West African Sub-region. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><img alt="*" height="10" src="file://localhost/Users/mohamedbalarbi/Library/Caches/TemporaryItems/msoclip/0clip_image001.gif" width="10" /><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">The recent
capture of Diabaly and the attack on Konna by the Islamist militants, thus
puting Bamako (the Malian capital) and the remaining government controlled
areas at risk of being united under one <i>‘Azawadstan’</i></span><i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="introduction" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-crrSzUYX2oU/UP0qbJ9DLwI/AAAAAAAAAhw/SFaHOIoyHGQ/s1600/_65302927_mali_fighting_2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="365" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-crrSzUYX2oU/UP0qbJ9DLwI/AAAAAAAAAhw/SFaHOIoyHGQ/s400/_65302927_mali_fighting_2.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="introduction" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -.25in;">
<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">Intriguingly, the
Malian crises does have some foriegn undertones. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">It is believed to be heighten</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">e</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">d by the influx of </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12647115"><span style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Tuareg fighters</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"> from Libya who fought on the
side of </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">the defeated </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Gaddafi
loyalist forces</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> during the 2011 Libyan revolution. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">Surely, the Libyan conflict
did not end cheap. With proliferation of weapons during the conflict, it must
have added to the lethal force of the Tuareg and Islamic separatist forces.</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">With hard lessons still being learnt from
the Pakistani and Afghanistan situation, there’s a concern for the Malian case
not to fall in that line.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">There have been calls for an Ecowas
military intervention force to liberate Northern Mali as any attempt to allow
for an ‘<i>Azawad</i></span><i><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">stan</span></i><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">’
may spark Tuareg separatist conflicts in other neighbouring countries</span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> and most
the most chilling terrorist attacks in the West African subregion and even
Europe!</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">. Bearing
in mind that Al-Queda linked groups hold sway in the territory, there’s an onus
to restore sanity to the rebellious territory.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif";">The Malian North which is a vast expanse
of Sahara may not be familiar territory for any Ecowas intervention force. Moreover,
there will be need for logistical air support from western powers—a cause which
France is </span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">spearheading. With the Islamist militants now pushing towards Bamako, the
French President has acceded to demands by the Malian Prime minister for help
in the face of the ignominious defeat suffered by the Malian army in the hands
of the rebels. The swift response of the French has thus encouraged a </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21029916"><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">mobilization
of WestAfrican forces</span></a></span><span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;"> to counter the activities of the Malian Islamists.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="introduction" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="YO" style="font-family: "Andalus","serif"; mso-ansi-language: YO;">With the international
scene wary of foreign intervention in crises ridden countries, whilst
consention cannot be agreed on Syria, the world cannot afford to watch a
helpless and hopeless Malian regime turn an Azawadstan!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-GB"><b><span lang="YO" style="font-family: Andalus, serif;">Samson Faboye</span></b></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-88757747750642975872013-01-03T01:11:00.001+01:002013-01-03T01:11:46.640+01:00Hedge Funds: Crossroad of International Affairs and Money <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b>Hedge Funds:
Crossroad of International Affairs and Money<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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One would hardly perceive politics as a source of income
outside the realm of the government agencies or consultancy firms, yet a great
deal of wealth is being generated by an unorthodox type of politicians,
politicians who didn’t have to integrate the parliament to make enough money
for a decent living and beyond! As we sit tight in our desks, contemplating the
course of events the world has sailed on or the dynamics geopolitics has
imposed on the international chessboard, many are turning history not into a
set of lines inscribed in encyclopedias and articles, but into checks with as
high as 9 figures.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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While politics might seems as the end in itself for standard
politicians, for such individuals it turns out to be a mean to generate cash
without necessarily contributing to shaping the policies or decisions usually
upheld with triumph by congressmen and statesmen. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Nor do these people abide by the virtues and precepts of
theorists. Not concerned with the philosophical implications of communism,
expressing disdain for the ethical controversies raised by capitalism, they see
and read politics in the most convenient ways: the way of making money out of
it regardless of the nature of a political system. If the political tide turns
bright, they invest long, while if it darkens and announces sour shortcomings,
they sell short: Moral of the story, they make money!<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://www.intelligenthq.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Traders-in-action.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://www.intelligenthq.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Traders-in-action.jpg" width="400" /></a>These people, with a deep appreciation for analysis and
great disdain for practice, are the men and women populating the numerous hedge
funds proliferating throughout the globe. Traders, not necessarily overlooking
the Bull in their ivory towers in Wall Street, have grown to display a strong
affinity for international affairs and world dynamics, and understood the power
of geopolitics and Realpolitik in generating wealth without great deal of
debate or heated conversations.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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While the policy makers struggle to pass on bills or promote
certain military agenda in order to earn their wages, it has now become
possible to take the ready product of such political debates and analyze its
implications worldwide in order, after a quick call to your broker, to make
some cash flow in your balance.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Quick example: with the Russian invasion of Georgia a couple
of years ago, one could look up the geography of the country and easily notice
the pipeline going through its borders, thus realizing that the implications of
the war would be disastrous for the pipeline in terms of output and net
delivery. A trader resumes such analysis in a quick short selling of the shares
of the Oil and Gas companies benefiting from the pipeline, therefore making
money once the shares of BP soar in the stock market. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://cdn.pearltrees.com/s/preview/index?urlId=35269867" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="http://cdn.pearltrees.com/s/preview/index?urlId=35269867" width="400" /></a>The availability of hedge funds, their cumulative ceiling of
operations hovering around the 2.5 trillion $<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>,
their ability to outperform the market and their various level of operations
now allows many to integrate these financial institutions that are still widely
underrated, and to put at use one’s appreciation of politics, business and
international affairs. The trend now is in favor of exploiting political
intelligence through consultancy firms; yet as the usage of singled trusted
firms makes it hard to be unique in choosing the right investments to make for
hedge funds, it is projected to see funds hiring their own political analysts
or political evaluation departments in order to avoid investing like everyone
else.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 17.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial;">Daniel Celeghin, a partner with the advisory firm
Casey Quirk in the US, argues that the world’s top 30 hedge funds will probably
all be consulting top-tier political experts, whether it is former policy
professionals or high-profile government figures.<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">[2]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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The combination of politics and economics is widely seen as
an academic choice meant to be split on the edge of professional tracks, yet
today it is possible and profitable to opt for something beyond sole economic
or political career path, it is possible to marry both and still make more
money than previously hoped for. The power of knowledge and foresight is an
invaluable commodity in the trading floor, and being able to speculate on the
course of events in far away lands based on a great understanding of
international affairs and politics is an asset most hedge funds look crazily
for. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://euobserver.com/media/src/d0de9ae90f2e9d09bfbb35d530103629.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://euobserver.com/media/src/d0de9ae90f2e9d09bfbb35d530103629.jpg" width="240" /></a>A decade ago, Political science was labeled an academic
choice for theorists and students without a clear vision for their future
professional involvement. The 9/11 attacks were a turning point in the
perception of politics in the youth environment given the fact that
international affairs and foreign political systems acquired ideological and
physical reach in the heart of the Western World. The rush for <i>Poli sci</i> set the clock for a new wave of
diplomats, ambassadors and intelligence officers with an acute knowledge of the
various cultural, political, religious and social factors that shape the public
opinion and political systems in Eastern nations. We are now living the 3<sup>rd</sup>
revival of politics and international relations, a revival strengthened by the
realization that politics and international affairs today can generate the most
cherished commodity ever: profit! <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Traders are no longer required to be astute in math and
economics, but are demanded to absorb abundant knowledge of geopolitics and international
relations in order to know how does Iran missile tests affect oil prices, or
how “Fiscal Cliff aversion” spending cuts in the military budget drive down the
shares of Lockheed Martin.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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To conclude, it is an ever growing joy to see politics adapting
to the tides of the markets, and to witness the evolution of international
relations from a set of factors affecting bilateral treaties taught in
university, to a critical asset used to place trades in the stock market and
foresee financial implications of political decisions, or indecisions. Most of
all, it is a confirmation that the rigid politics we are brought to believe in
is simply the pic of an iceberg widely undiscovered, and that the confinements
of governmental policy making are not the only representation of politics, but
rather the apparent limitations of a system of thought that expands beyond the
government and bears practicality in virtually all field of human interactions
and transactions. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--[endif]-->
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Foreign Affairs, Will Hedge Funds Survive, <a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64936/martin-j-gross/will-hedge-funds-survive">http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64936/martin-j-gross/will-hedge-funds-survive</a>
<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Financial News, Hedge Funds Consider Political Risk <a href="http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2011-11-07/hedge-funds-consider-political-risk">http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2011-11-07/hedge-funds-consider-political-risk</a>
<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
</div>
<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-21290002150090058452012-12-22T19:03:00.003+01:002012-12-22T19:05:59.090+01:00How is Morocco shedding away foreign Investments <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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As I landed a couple fo hours ago in Casablanca coming from Dubai, I couldn't help but have some reflexions on the horrid customer service provided in the Moroccan airport. Coming across an exasperated businessman from Bangladesh, I realized that such lack of consideration for the customer is not only a failure to comply with the rules of decency every airport ought to implement, but also a grave attack on potential foreign investments that are a crucial component for recovery in the current shaky economic conditions...<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>How is Morocco shedding away foreign Investments<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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In these times of financial and economic uncertainties, the
world is striving to power boost growth and encourage investments in order to
cut loose the ongoing nightmares of the ailing banking system and its
repercussions on the world finance. Yet, as these efforts to encourage a quick
recovery are spreading, and indeed populating most of world leaders speeches
and TV apparitions, one country is lacking behind: Morocco.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Although most observers might claim otherwise, Morocco’s
approach and methodology in restructuring its economy and lifting the purchase
power of its citizen is all but comprehensive and sound. The gross mistake the
Moroccan authorities have been conducting throughout the years, and more acutely
now, is that the government tries to induce a top down growth through
encouraging multibillion dollars investments instead of building a strong
investment base powered by the middle class and small businesses. The last
visit of the king to the Gulf countries, a recurrent theatrical play where the
monarchy squeezes billions of dollars from the Gulf royalties whenever the
domestic economics are not adding up, is an astounding example of such state
practice of top down investment. Channeling investments and projects by Gulf
corporations to Morocco might be of short-term benefits since it creates direct
jobs in construction or tourism; yet, most of these foreign ventures end up
frozen due to the absence of consumers of such products, and deficiency of
completive small businesses that can create the necessary environment for a
full investment to operate. What I mean by completive small businesses are
those enterprises that offer services and products that a Hotel cannot offer,
as simple as that. Luxurious resorts and Hotels are a product locals cannot
afford, a fact not hard to miss on since the market these investments target
are foreign. This poses the question: will a businessman, celebrities or high-income
consumers visit Morocco on the sole basis of staying in a luxurious hotel? What
draws outsiders are unique travel experiences that are prosperous for them to
initiate potential ventures, that is to say a compelling cultural setting, the
existence of advantageous telecommunication services and infrastructure, the flourishing
of small businesses that offer skilled technicians and resources and the
presence of quality transportation firms. Thus begging for Gulf investments
without laying the foundations for these very ventures to thrive is pouring
water on the sand. A state that cannot cope with rainfalls, rising criminality,
poor consumer purchase power, degrading middle class and fiscal irregularities
and fraud is far from succeeding in getting the economic house back in order
through a couple of foreign investors.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.invest.gov.ma/upload/news/en_gphoto_418.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="http://www.invest.gov.ma/upload/news/en_gphoto_418.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Another flaw in Moroccan approach to economic growth is the
discrepancy in treatments offered to foreign investors. While western investors
are treated with the greatest forms of respect and privilege, Asian
entrepreneurs are disregarded as casual travelers who have to pass through the
hardships and tortuous airline and airports process, a process that the
Moroccan airports made the worst possible in any sovereign nation. Lost
luggage, hours in line for the passport checks, empty cubicles meant to be
filed by airport officers and no regards for customer service… many of the
realities of Moroccan airports that would push away any investor from thinking
about traveling to Morocco. These are the basic services that a state should
prioritize if it seriously considers drawing foreign cash to the mainland.</div>
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Successful investment strategies are those that care about the small businesses,
encourage entrepreneurship and facilitate foreign knowledge and expertise flow
to the domestic market. If a nation cannot offer decent treatment for travelers
and outsiders going through its airport –travelers who after all are walking
wallets that can be tapped into -, then there is no premise for talking about
economic recovery through foreign investments. It is saddening to see on one
hand great nations deploy resources, efforts and time to empower small
businesses as the ultimate path to recovery, and on the other hand witnessing
one’s country waste money in lobbying and embassy held dinners to attract
investments that will not impact the domestic economic landscape, because the
state didn’t care enough to build a favorable base for these investments to
flourish upon. The true change starts from within, not through aesthetic
appliances to hide inherent flaws in the domestic scene, thus if Morocco is to
ever join in the global effort to regenerate wealth and growth, it should start
by permitting small businesses -domestic and foreign- to prosper, not by
helping them financially, but simply through fulfilling the tasks every state
is elected to accomplish in the first place. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<b>Mohamed Amine Belarbi<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-13193163784856754882012-12-15T12:42:00.001+01:002012-12-15T12:42:06.313+01:00International Affairs on the Edge Mag 2<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-82193151732148775502012-12-09T16:09:00.000+01:002012-12-09T16:09:40.144+01:00Egyptian Politics: between the immature and the unorganized <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b>Egyptian Politics:
between the immature and the unorganized<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The recent tragedy unfolding in Egypt in the aftermath of
the presidential decree is a critical sign of Egyptian politics’ immaturity. An
immaturity not only due to the young democracy that is taking shape in Egypt,
but also due to the inexperience of the ruling party that has shouldered
political responsibility and state management for its first time. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://shariaunveiled.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/muslim-brotherhood-on-twitter.jpg?w=627" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="286" src="http://shariaunveiled.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/muslim-brotherhood-on-twitter.jpg?w=627" width="400" /></a>Although not enlisted in the Muslim Brotherhood or in its
political wing, the Freedom and Justice Party, Mr. Morsi showcases all the
pathological signs of the Muslim Brotherhood approach to politics and
policymaking. The extensive network of the Muslim Brotherhood spans throughout
Egypt and the greater Middle East, yet the historical background of the
organization doesn’t include in its records periods of time where the
brotherhood assumed political office or statesmanship position. Imbued in an
activist and underground lifestyle, the Muslim brotherhood drew its power in
its ability to mobilize its members and partisans en masse and in short
notices, as well as its extensive knowledge of the public opinion’s tendencies
and ways to manipulate domestic and foreign events in shaping the street pulse
and using it as a leverage to further their agenda and recruitment process.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The issue with underground, and in this case banned groups
and congregations, is that ideological battles are their expertise, yet
Realpolitik and political practice are not fields of mastery for groups that
always strived to assume roles of opposition and state defiance with no intent
on engaging in statesmanship and policy making.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The case of the attempt of the Muslim Brotherhood to
assassinate the Egyptian president Gamal Abdennasser in 1954 is a typical trait
of the organization: Although the assassination of the president would not have
an impact on the course of policies of its administration, the Brotherhood
envisioned such attempt as a show of force to further confirm its defiance and
opposition stance against the government. If the Brotherhood had any sense of
political engagement, it could have mobilized its extensive human and financial
capital to lobby and influence policy makers as a mean to shape policies they
see best serve their agenda or that of the Egyptian people. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://patdollard.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Egypt-Muslim-Brotherhood-008.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://patdollard.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Egypt-Muslim-Brotherhood-008.jpg" width="400" /></a>The same trait of rebellion continued during the Arab Spring
and Egyptian revolution, a revolution that remains a standing ovation for the
ability of the Muslim Brotherhood to mobilize a vast human capital and hijack
mass protests through a subtle and swift influence and engineering of the
public opinion and street pulse. Yet, as the regime fell down and the prospects
of power became apparent for the Muslim Brotherhood, the newly legitimate
organization assumed political office through its political party, the Freedom
and Justice party, a step that is being considered a true game changer in the
history of the Brotherhood. For 84 years of activity, the Muslim Brotherhood
assumed state responsibility, a responsibility that extends beyond the
operational capability of the congregation given the lack of political
experience and exposure to the intricacies of governance and state management.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Although a gloomy prospect for Egyptian domestic affairs,
the Muslim Brotherhood remains the only alternative in a political spectrum
hugely divided between unorganized and scattered political actors.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Whether liberals, secularists or moderate Islamists, the plethora
of political establishments in Egypt is far from displaying the political
plurality that is a sign of a healthy democracy. The realities enclosing the
various political parties in Egypt attest of their inefficacy and inability to
run a consensual government cohesive enough to stand the challenges of the
post-revolutionary Egypt. The opportunities that the revolution offered seemed
immeasurable in political terms, thus the exponential rise in political
formation, parties and groups was a much-expected trend in the Egyptian arena,
a trend that not only determined the impossibility of forming a non-Islamist majority
government, but also signed the death testimony of the Egyptian pluralistic
system of governance.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Although some of the political establishments, in great
parts remnants of the old regime, have the ability to govern and to strongly
handle the domestic affairs in Egypt, they remain hugely overwhelmed by the far
reaching discipline and organization of the Brotherhood, and continue to be
seen under a negative light due to their association with the fallen
dictatorship. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The way forward in Egypt is to be determined by the
willingness of the Muslim Brotherhood to both accept a political compromise and
an ideological paradigm shift. The Muslim brotherhood lacks the experience that
statesmanship requires, an experience that can be offered by the contesting
political establishments pioneered by the secularists and the liberals.
Although see as an ideological threat, the Muslim brotherhood can still
accommodate the opposite factions in state organs by offering a mutual
governance of Egyptian affairs, a mutual governance that can be exploited by
the Muslim brotherhood as a temporary venture to gain the political maturity
needed for a powerful governing organization. The Muslim Brotherhood will not
be able to assume fully its responsibilities towards the Egyptian street unless
it decides to relegate its rebellious ideology and its affinity towards
opposition for a more governance driven line of thought. It is of paramount
importance to realize the necessity that the times of staunch opposition are
over, and the era of political practice is on. If the Brotherhood is to persist
in its ideological supremacy and political immaturity, it will lose the hearts
and minds of the supporters who propelled it to the pic of power, and it will
miss on the golden opportunity of transforming its principles, values and
precepts into actual enforced policies through the powerful medium of the state
and parliament.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Mohamed Amine Belarbi<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-17369813835546588292012-11-25T17:42:00.001+01:002012-11-25T17:42:13.117+01:00Obama 2016, China and the Middle East <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://stanfordflipside.com/images/61china.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="166" src="http://stanfordflipside.com/images/61china.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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With a dramatic campaign brought to an end, it is reasonable
to let loose the festivities and celebrate the second term of the 44<sup>th</sup>
president of the United States. Yet, behind the stunning smile and the
theatrical performances, Obama’s to do list is filling up with major
challenges, and celebrating along Michelle is far from being the paramount
priority of the overburdened president thus far.</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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From the Iranian nuclear aspirations to the growing Chinese
influence in the Middle East, this short article will draw on the time urgency and
contextual realities of the MENA region in order to bring the casual reader a
step closer to understanding how the US policies should evolve with regard to
the Arab World if the US interests are to prevail in the region.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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“Iran is now 4 more years closer to the production of a
nuclear bomb”, how familiar this seems given that Romney’s foreign policy
hovered around this very sentence throughout his campaign, yet, as we see it
today, the round of international sanctions championed by the Obama are bearing
fruitful results and bringing the Iranian regime closer to a financial
meltdown. While the economic sanctions might prove to be the way to salvation,
regional powers dependent on Iranian oil might beg to differ on the US
strategic vision to impede the ayatollahs from procuring themselves nuclear
capabilities. The Obama administration is faced with the choice of continued
sanctions that might prove inefficient given the continual opposition of China
(resources driven) and Russia (geopolitically immersed in the safeguard of the
Iranian regime), or with the alternative of striking deep down in the Iranian
territory. Such military venture, as foolish it might be, is rebutted by the
former national security adviser and world renown strategist Brzezinski in the
following terms:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="color: #7c2769;"> “A war in the Middle East, in the
present context, may last for years, and the economic consequences of it are
going to be devastating for the average American: High inflation. Instability.
Insecurity. Probably significant isolation for the United States in the world
scene” Brzezinski to Newsmax TV<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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Two choices, neither as promising as marketed to be, puts
the US administration in the embarrassing position of accepting a nuclear Iran
as a reality, a reality that might serve the American interests in fact,
regardless of the catastrophic image the Israelis attempt to wave in mass media
in order to favor a preemptive strike.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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While Israel’s ties to the US are unshakable and enhanced by
a certain sense of commonality in terms of political, cultural and historical similarities,
the Arab states converge with the US strategic vision only when mutual
interests are involved. These interests range from security (as in the case of
the Gulf countries) to economic assistance (Egypt among others), yet the
critical aspect of such interests is that they are not exclusive to the United
Sates, but are tightly linked to the economic and geopolitical performances of
international and regional hegemon. Such regional hegemon is embodied by China,
an aspiring world player with an economy large enough to have its take on
international politics and regional influence. China has been absent from the
Middle East largely due to the US status in the region, yet as the US foreign
policy accommodates the growing needs and fancies of Israel (ultimately alienating
the Arab street), and as Washington’s tight policies increase pressure on
post-revolutionary governments with a leadership not ready to accept a full
allegiance to the white house, alternatives start shaping and Arab states are
most likely to identify regional powers who can substitute the US in the Middle
Eastern chessboard. China, with an appealing financial portfolio and a
reassuring posture in the world scene is prone on undertaking the role of the
major player in Middle Eastern politics, a role that doesn’t stem from choice
but from necessity given the growing needs in oil of the Chinese industry and
economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b><span style="color: #7c2769;"> “China’s presence in the Middle East
has grown exponentially over the past decade and is affecting the region’s
strategic environment. Chinese influence is multidimensional, encompassing
economics, defense, diplomacy, and soft power.” <a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span style="color: #7c2769; font-size: 12pt;">[1]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></a></span></b><o:p></o:p></div>
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In such circumstances, attending to the fancies of a certain
ally become less urgent than securing states whose allegiance can be lost to
potential competitors, thus the Middle Eastern agenda of Barack Obama should
cut on the support to Israel (not much of a political suicide given the fact
that the presidential campaign is over and the super PACs are not as meaningful
now that the results are out), and deploy a strategic vision preliminary aimed
at accommodating the post-revolutionary Arab states through financial,
political, diplomatic and military support. Such attempt would leverage the US
interests on two levels: first by providing a stronger geopolitical stance in
the region for American interests through US-friendly governments, and second
through the establishment of a pressure regional bloc that can downsize Chinese
access to oil resources.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Such US foreign policy, coupling stronger unconditional support
for post-revolutionary Arab states and firm refusal to bend to Israeli appeals
will inevitably disarm Iran from its main source of support in the Arab and
Islamic world, depriving it from popular compassion and thus disabling proxy
factions such as Hezbollah from tapping into anti-US feeling as main recourse
for recruitment and military support to the mullahs in Teheran. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
James Chen, The emergence of China in the Middle East, Institute for National
Strategic Studies<o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-77674428704965749682012-10-31T14:26:00.002+01:002012-10-31T14:26:35.254+01:00Mitt Romney's Foreign Policy Flaws<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.mittromney.com/sites/default/files/romney-2012-blog-photo-foreign-policy-team-guiding-americas-strength-abroad.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="http://www.mittromney.com/sites/default/files/romney-2012-blog-photo-foreign-policy-team-guiding-americas-strength-abroad.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; line-height: 115%;">Much talk has filled mass media since the kick off
of the presidential elections, with most of the analysis and speculations
hovering around what mattered most to Americans: Economy; but what about the
other main segment of presidential capabilities, namely foreign policy? While
Obama’s foreign policy has crystalized over the past four years in world
consciousness, Mitt Romney remains a focal point of controversy, not only
because republicans developed the bad habit of ruining their nations’ foreign
policy, but also because of the thundering statements of Mitt who vowed to
redefine the 21<sup>st</sup> century as the American century by excellence
under Washington’s leadership. Such declarations ought to push the casual
citizen to offer special consideration to the Republican runner up for
presidency, and to develop a thorough understanding of what is widely held to
be the very policies that will shape the world we live in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; line-height: 115%;">I will walk you through Mitt Romney’s Foreign
Policy, with special focus on the republicans’ strategy with regard to the
Middle East given the current unfolding and turmoil spanning throughout the
region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;">It is worth noting, before heading any further in
this article, that Mitt Romney’s Foreign policy speeches have so far only
communicated a set of critiques and undermining statements of Obamas’ handling
of key topics such as the Arab Spring, the Syrian crackdown on civilians and
the nuclear potential aspirations of Iran, without pointedly communicating a
clear strategy and set of policies that will define the path Washington will
undergo under a republican administration. Although unclear and suspiciously
similar to the key fundamental pivots of Obama’s foreign policy, Romney’s
driving philosophy for handling world challenges can be, as written in the
Economist’s Lexington notebook, best characterized as a “[…] Reaganesque talk
of achieving “peace through strength””<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: white;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>.
The peace-through-strength line of thought has proven to be </span><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;"><br />unproductive and indeed detrimental to US interests
under the Bush administration. The setbacks of unilateral action coupled with
disregard of the new realities of distribution of power makes a new Bush Style
foreign policy unraveling in the Middle East, and on a more global scale,
noxious for world cooperation and for US interests indeed. Discouragement of
multilateral cooperation is not a speculation but rather a plain
acknowledgement by Romney himself since he plainly declares in his Foreign
policy document when discussing the Syrian crisis: “Instead of taking the
initiative to establish his own transition plan, the President outsourced
leadership to Kofi Annan and the United Nations”. A foreign policy based on
individual aspirations to shape the politics of a certain region through
unilateral action not only undermines international cooperation, but also rules
out the component of diplomatic compromise, which it is worth remembering, is
the driving fuel of world politics and was the only way out for the Kennedy
administration during the Cuban Missiles crisis (since we are commemorating the
50<sup>th</sup> year of the event, it worth clarifying that the secret deal
with the USSR over the American missile system deployment in Turkey is the
compromise that allowed the peaceful resolution of the Cuban issue, thus
Realpolitik in action, not unilateral vocation for world individual leadership
as Romney advocates).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; line-height: 115%;">The rise of China as a global economic engine, and
the resurgence of Russian interests in the Middle East coupled with the
emergence of new Arab governments with a less pro-American leadership tendency puts
the US in a sensible position, a position where diplomatic efforts and
compromises are the only pathway towards greater collaboration, not
confrontational tensions that will shrug the new global players from
elaborating friendly approaches and policies towards the US. The usage of power
can be adopted as foreign policy framework only if a nation is declared as sole
superpower and is safe from any potential resistance by instated or emerging
global actors. This is what Romney fails to account for in todays pluralistic
and multifaceted world, instead clinging to the notion of American
exceptionalism, exceptionalism he advocates for not only as a domestic
philosophy but also as a driving foreign policy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; line-height: 115%;">Mitt Romney, in his speech at the Virginia Military
Institute on October 8<sup>th</sup>, argued for the case of a 21<sup>st</sup>
century American exceptionalism, a driving philosophy that is the backbone of
US foreign policy, by stating that “It is the responsibility of our president
to use America’s great power to shape history – not to lead from behind,
leaving our destiny at the mercy of events”. The American exceptionalism is
held to be true today only in the domain of military dominance, yet the
emergence of the current economic powers (BRICS) has shattered this concept as
detailed in the "Post American World" by Fareed Zakaria. The rise of
the rest is what is at the heart of discussions in the white house given the
impact such rise upholds on US leadership and exceptionalism, and it is the
first time since the collapse of the USSR that the US position as world
superpower is under threat. Americans do believe in the uniqueness of American
history, yet the debt leverage China has and its trade advantage over the US,
the shift of educational and financial capital towards the East and the
cultural dilution of American culture amidst new prominent additions to the
Globalized world tradition is a reality that contrasts with the typical
American belief of US exceptionalism. Thus it is important to question the practicality
of the policies Mitt Romney advances and through which he claims he will
underscore the rise of the rest and consolidate the fading American
exceptionalism.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<a name='more'></a><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;">A pivot point of Romney’s foreign policy speeches
is the support of “new friends who share [US] values in the Middle East”<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: white;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>,
yet such assertion is neither realistic nor in line with the republican fervent
policies in regard to Israel. In his website, Mitt Romney carves a foreign
policy towards Israel that follows the conventional republican support of the
Jewish state. Yet the unrealistic plan the republican advances for such support
bypasses conventional norms of world politics and global affairs compromises.
Stating that “The United States must forcefully resist the emergence of
anti-Israel policies in Turkey and Egypt” or that “The United States must work as
a country to resist the worldwide campaign to delegitimize Israel”</span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn3" name="_ftnref3" title=""><sup><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span style="font-family: Cambria;">[3]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;"> is an inconsiderate approach to
US interests in the region and indeed on the International arena, interests
that the Republican strategy undermines in order to empower Israeli policies condemned
unacceptable by the world community. Unconditional support to Israel and
greater affinity with the new post-revolutionary Arab leadership are mutually
exclusive, since advocating for interference and pressure on the Egyptian and
Turkish governments through conditional aid and diplomatic stress is not the
best way to make good friends with these governments nor with the Arab nations
that share similar distrust and cynicism towards the Zionist state. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; line-height: 115%;"><br />The events that unraveled in the MENA Region during
the 9/11 memorial, the riots against the US embassies and the attack on the US
consulate in Benghazi are but few indicators that confirm the necessity for the
US foreign policy to balance its support to Israel with friendlier relations
with the Arab world, given the Arab mindset that links all pitfalls of the
Islamic world on Israeli interference and conspiracies to harm the interests of
the glorious Ummah. Thus blind support for Israel, increased military,
financial and logistical supplies, or politically incorrect statements about
Israeli superior culture and Palestinians lack of interest in peace are
ingredients that will make the Middle Eastern soup hard to swallow for US policy
makers in case Romney heads forward with his foreign policy plans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;">Mitt Romney’s foreign policy strategy, or lack
thereof, seems not only to be a personal feature, but a characteristic of the
republican campaign as a whole. Paul Rayan, the ambitious republican Vice
presidential nominee, asserted in one of his public appearances that “[by
projecting] weakness abroad, our adversaries are that much more willing to test
us, to question our resolve, and our allies are more </span><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;"><br />hesitant to trust us”</span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftn4" name="_ftnref4" title=""><sup><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><sup><span style="font-family: Cambria;">[4]</span></sup><!--[endif]--></span></sup></a><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;">. Affirming that American
weakness is the true motivator of the anti-American tensions unfolding in the
Middle East is a narrow appreciation for the politics shaping the Middle
Eastern mindset. The tense relations with the Afghan and Pakistani population
are not the result of lack of military personnel in the region but the direct
outcome of inconsiderate usage of drone attacks on terrorist targets and
civilian gatherings. The defiance of China is not the upshot of lack of naval
military units in the pacific but the consequence of economic leverage of the
Chinese industry. As Obama pointed it out during the last presidential debate
when addressing Romney’s call for increased budgetary allowances to the Pentagon,
“You mentioned the Navy, for example, and that we have fewer ships than we did
in 1916. Well, Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets, because the
nature of our military’s changed.” Romney has to redraft the foreign policy of
the US not along military quantitative intensification but through diplomatic
active performance throughout the Globe in order to achieve what cannot be done
through military might. Military intervention in Iran will have devastating
effects with only an ephemeral gain to delay Iranian nuclear ambitions, yet
active collaboration with world players can coordinate effective economic
sanctions that can and are already crippling Iranian financial sector. Todays’
world, today’s distribution of power and today’s multinational ambitions for
influence and control render the Reaganesque peace-through-strength obsolete
and irrelevant to the dynamics of world affairs. The winner takes it all
strategy that Romney intends on pursuing is not realistic given the existence
of governments and third parties that are powerful enough to claim their share
of the global cake.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="background-color: black; color: white; line-height: 115%;">Mohamed
Amine Belarbi<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</div>
<span style="background-color: black;"><b><span style="color: white; line-height: 115%;"><br clear="all" style="mso-break-type: section-break; page-break-before: always;" />
</span></b>
</span><br />
<div>
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span style="background-color: black;">You can download and consult the PDF Document here:<br clear="all" />
</span><br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
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<div style="text-align: left; width: 420px;">
<span style="background-color: black;"><a href="http://issuu.com/mohamedaminebelarbi/docs/romney_s_foreign_policy_or_the_typical_republican_?mode=window&backgroundColor=%23222222" target="_blank">Open publication</a> - Free <a href="http://issuu.com/" target="_blank">publishing</a> - <a href="http://issuu.com/search?q=foreign%20policy" target="_blank">More foreign policy</a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;">
</span><br />
<span style="background-color: black;"><br /></span>
<br />
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<br />
<div id="ftn1">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="background-color: black;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;"> The Economist, <i>Mitt Romney’s foreign policy Wishful thinking</i>,
Lexington, Oct 9<sup>th</sup> 2012<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn2">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="background-color: black;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;"> Official Foreign policy
strategy of Mitt Romney, www.mittromney.com<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn3">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<span style="background-color: black;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref3" name="_ftn3" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">[3]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;"> Official Foreign policy
strategy of Mitt Romney, www.mittromney.com<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div id="ftn4">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6984894688776877659#_ftnref4" name="_ftn4" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="background-color: black; color: white;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">[4]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="color: white; mso-themecolor: background1;"><span style="background-color: black;"> The Economist, <i>Mitt Romney’s foreign policy Wishful
thinking</i>, Lexington, Oct 9<sup>th</sup> 2012</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
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<div id="ftn4">
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<!--EndFragment--></div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-52954816718672685342012-10-20T18:47:00.003+02:002012-10-20T18:47:58.504+02:00International Affairs on the Edge Magazine<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
Finally our Magazine is out! This 1st publication compiles recent articles by Mohamed Amine Belarbi on various topics, ranging from A potential war on Iran to US Foreign Policy.<br />
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-41465045968711937072012-10-12T23:17:00.000+02:002012-10-12T23:17:53.239+02:00The Post-American World: Book Review<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">My Book Review for "The Post-American World" by </span><a data-hovercard="/ajax/hovercard/page.php?id=115932748420592" href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Fareed-Zacharia/115932748420592" style="cursor: pointer; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-decoration: none;">Fareed Zacharia</a><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;"> is now live!</span></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">Excerpt:</span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;">"A good read combining a deep understanding of economics, history, foreign policy and global security, “The Post-American World” offers rich resources and ideas t</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">o have a grasp on the mechanics of international affairs today, allowing the casual reader to reflect on today’s politics, how they are shaped, and what is the likely outcome they can offer given the many political orientation world powers, and especially the US, decide to follow."</span></span><br />
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-28666315306701052462012-09-30T16:42:00.003+02:002012-09-30T16:42:45.826+02:00Human security in NATO strategies<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://www.khaama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/NATO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://www.khaama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/NATO.jpg" width="320" /></a>The North
Atlantic alliance has a rich portfolio of military interventions and operations
throughout the world, a portfolio which not only gathers successful military
involvements, but also wide criticism for failures to protect and secure
civilians in areas struck by the curse of war and conflict. The Kosovo
intervention and the operations in Afghanistan are striking examples of how
objective-driven military strategies overcome the necessity to ponder the
implications of intervention and operations on civilians and non-military personnel.</div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">A working
plan mainly based on strategic bombings (as in Kosovo), or on short term
efficient destruction of enemy operational forces and arms is all but
considerate to the importance to protect civilians both in the short and long
term of ongoing conflicts. It is important and indeed crucial to assess the
success of any intervention by its potential to protect the civilians on the
ground rather than by the potential losses the intervention can incur on hostile
forces. In the 21<sup>st</sup> century, aerial supremacy is fading as main
course of action to defeat ground forces, especially that today’s targeted
forces are not conventional armies but militias with street warfare techniques.
Resolving to aerial bombings and drone strikes is condemning the conflict to
bear heavy casualties on civilians since the hostile militias (ex: al Qaeda, Al
Shabab…) take from civilian residential blocks footholds and grounds to launch
rocket attacks and furtive assaults. This not only leads to embarrassment with
local administrations and authorities, but puts at risk the success of any
military intervention since it alienates the foreign troops on the ground and
catalyzes rogue operations as it has been happening in Afghanistan with the
NATO led coalition.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vo11/no2/images/balaseviciusBOOKREV1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vo11/no2/images/balaseviciusBOOKREV1.jpg" width="271" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The
solution then?: A rising field of military intelligence which studies and
analyzes the subtleties of the cultural mix of targeted areas, and adapts the
missions to the sensitivities of the society in order to build strong
collaboration with local civilians instead of keeping them on the sidelines.
Cultural intelligence, as I came to understand through a lecture I attended in
Abu Dhabi and through a conversation I had with a US intelligence personnel in
Morocco, is rising to prominence in international affairs, defense and security
agendas, a rise which started with the gulf war and kept on gaining interest
through the following military conflicts which spanned in the Middle East and
elsewhere. A military intervention can never be won by planes or troops only,
it is far and foremost won by the establishment of trust between the locals and
the intervening troops, and also though the creation of tensions if not
repugnance towards the operating militias in the region. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">NATO
operating officers and troops ought to understand the complexities of the
boundaries they operate within, and to do so require a clear grasp of the
language, religion, traditions and customs as well as the ethnical tensions
existing in order to exploit them in achieving key goals with minimal losses of
troops and civilians. A NATO leadership which overlooks the tensions between
Shias and Sunnis, tribal affiliations and secessionist movements will induce
civil war confrontations after any military intervention (Kurds/Shias/Sunnis
tensions in Iraq, Sunni/Shia divide in Syria, Tribal conception of power in
Libya and Yemen), and these are the byproducts of war which inflict the
greatest losses in civilian ranks. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">NATO
strategies in future military interventions should attend to key points amongst
which is a thorough understanding of the tribal, religious and ethnical
discrepancies, and based on such assessment, any military intervention should
aim at inflicting defeat upon the hostile force and establishing a distribution
of power in which the ruling majority before the intervention is likely to
secure control over state management. Such distribution of power should not
empower authoritarian majorities against the interest of existing minorities,
but should secure arrangements and political pacts which will render any future
majority-led repression impossible. To do so, NATO should attend to the
destruction of most of the hostile groups’ military arsenal; with the systematic
elimination of its key figures I order to transform its leadership into a void
and obsolete center of command. Furthermore, NATO officials should empower
dissidents among a targeted regime or militias through financing and
intelligence support in order to break down the efficiency of the target and
deviate its focus from external confrontations towards internal struggles. An
example is the Iraqi case: with former ruling Sunni elite, today’s Iraq
empowered Kurds and Shias is in total chaos due to sectarian conflicts raging
throughout the nation. If the coalition intervening in Iraq weakened the Baath
party and encouraged dissidence amongst its rank, facilitating the
restructuration of the regime without necessary inducing its collapse, a Baath
regime with moderate approach to the US and with a fierce grasp on the Iraqi
sectarian mix could have prevented the civil war which tears the country apart
today.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.absoluterights.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/syria_fighting_tank.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://www.absoluterights.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/syria_fighting_tank.jpeg" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-US">In other
cases such as a potential intervention in Syria, NATO’s strategy should dismiss
air strike due to the urban density of the country (unlike Libya where air
strikes were successful due to low urbanization), instead prioritizing proxy
intervention and regional interference. With direct confrontation, NATO
strategy is ultimately deeming the coalition to severe human losses both in the
military and civilian ranks because of the blending of fighters, both rebels
and regime troops, in the urban setting. A NATO airstrike would be as
disastrous as its previous intervention in Kosovo, thus utilizing ground forces
acquainted with the geography, demographics, culture and religious environment
instead of NATO personnel would be far more successful. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The rebel networks,
evolving and getting more complicated, are losing the structural basis they
were first based on. The disruption in the chain of command is what leads to
unpredictable situations post-regime fall such as that in Libya were militias
outside the authority of the state proliferate. The NATO, by channeling
efforts, resources, intel and personnel in a directed flow can indeed establish
a rebel structure which is organized in the same fashion as conventional
military and prone on being converted into an armed authority wing under a
single command. This will greatly reduce collateral damages emerging from
uncontrolled military units and will enhance the efficiency of rebel operations
against rogue states.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Besides the
military nature of its operations, NATO should conduct nation building efforts
through programs aimed at improving the socio-economic conditions of the country
targeted, as it is the best way to win the hearts and minds of local populace
who are the best actors to exploit and direct towards leading insurgency
against authoritarian states and terrorist groups. An inside rejection of a
regime or repressive militia is far more powerful in determining the course of
action domestically, and way more inexpensive in terms of humanitarian losses.
As civilian resources are and will always be the key decisive currency of any
conflict or resolution, it is necessary and critical for NATO to adopt
civilian-friendly strategies which not only will boost its reputation
cross-seas, but will also make from risky operations with alarming consequences
a scarce commodity in the 21<sup>st</sup> century.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<b><span lang="EN-US">Mohamed Amine Belarbi</span></b></div>
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-18014713480024056472012-09-23T09:04:00.001+02:002012-09-23T09:05:28.774+02:00US Foreign Policy: What to expect next?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">The presidential elections in the US always set a paradigm shift in the perception and execution of the nations’ foreign policy, and the entrenched differences between the democrat and the republican visions of politics leave an apparent print in the elaboration of legislations and decisions pertinent to the US foreign policies.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">The last election, which outcome elevated the first African-American democrat to the presidential office, is one of the instances where the changes pursued between two different administrations in state foreign policy are widely acknowledged. The Bush administration, with a strong neo-conservative approach to politics, advocated a staunch and aggressive foreign policy which prioritized national interests over the communal and comprehensive welfare of the international community. The unilateral decisions, sanctions and military interventions operated outside of the UN mandate and which bore consequences with global reach draw world reluctance and disagreement with US actions, skyrocketing thus the levels of animosity towards the US in the European and Muslim world especially to unprecedented levels between 2001 and 2008<a href="file:///D:/Independent%20Skies/Featured/Featured%20Writers/Mohamed%20Amine%20Belarbi/US%20Foreign%20Policy%20-%20Mohamed%20Amine%20Belarbi.docx#_ftn1" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="">[1]</a>. This key feature of the Bush vision for world politics driven by confrontation and aggressive defense of interests abroad was widely overturned by the Obama administration.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">The transition from a period of declared warfare which engaged the US in multiple combats notably the Iraqi and Afghani interventions, to a period of active diplomacy and termination of conflicts has made the switch of administrations have a blatant impact on the foreign policy of the US.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">The major characteristics which shaped US and World politics between 2001 and 2008 are the wars led by the Bush administration, making the sole focal point of decision makers of a political and military nature. The clumsy approach to the economic aspect of foreign policy though has been given less importance in the precedent administration, and this neglect has been catastrophic in turn, leading to a global crisis which untreated underpinnings still have a major bearing on the current financial downturns in world markets<a href="file:///D:/Independent%20Skies/Featured/Featured%20Writers/Mohamed%20Amine%20Belarbi/US%20Foreign%20Policy%20-%20Mohamed%20Amine%20Belarbi.docx#_ftn2" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="">[2]</a>. The efforts channeled towards pursuing foreign interests shifted attention from domestic financial affairs, and the logical outcome was an economy drained by both military ventures and lack of innovative legislations to sustain American economic competitiveness and strength. A shaking US economy and a war-driven increase in oil prices made it inevitable for world economy to sink in an already started crisis in the corridors of Wall Street.<a href="http://independentskies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Wall-Street-Sign.jpg" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignleft" height="259" src="http://independentskies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Wall-Street-Sign.jpg" style="border: none; display: inline; float: left; margin: 3px 15px 12px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="Wall Street" width="450" /></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">During a presidential period, accumulating successes and achievements is the driving force of policy making, and the intent of the former republican administration to aggregate attainments was primary focused on short term investments meant at domestic consumption. The arrogant foreign policy of the Bush administration was overturning the interests of the US allies, putting some at risk and others at deep embarrassments with their populace with the sole motivation of asserting US force and integrity which has been shattered by the 9/11 attacks. The most powerful nation, with its most negative attributes related time and again in novels and romans, was ultimately depicted by the United States of America.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">The year of 2008 was a cornerstone in world politics, with deep impact on US domestic and foreign policy. The global crisis shifted the attention of law makers towards the financial welfare of the state instead of its political and diplomatic assets abroad. The financial downturn, coupled with the continuous rise of the Asian nations, turned US economic competitiveness into a major issue for the presidential cabinet. This shift in diplomacy from securing political and military alliances towards engaging in economic partnerships is clearly depicted in Obama’s <em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">National Security Strategy</em>:</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">“Our strategy starts by recognizing that our strength and influence abroad begins with the steps we take at home. We must grow our economy and reduce our deficit”<a href="file:///D:/Independent%20Skies/Featured/Featured%20Writers/Mohamed%20Amine%20Belarbi/US%20Foreign%20Policy%20-%20Mohamed%20Amine%20Belarbi.docx#_ftn3" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title="">[3]</a></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">This is a logical policy enterprise as the economic performances of a nation are the sole leverage for securing and pursuing interests abroad, funding military ventures and implementing institutions and establishments meant to advance the political, financial, cultural and religious affiliates of the nation ideological stances.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">This economy oriented strategy is likely to determine the future of the American politics post 2012. The European debt crisis and the expansion of Chinese and Indian economies is challenging the financial capabilities of the US, and regaining economic partnership, or slowing American financial fall in front of “the rise of the rest”, will set the pace for US foreign policy in the next decades. The quality of the presidential republican contender hints to the nature of policies he will prioritize: Mitt Romney is a renowned businessman with deep insights in the corporate world. With such a presidential nominee, the republicans want to assert to the public that economy rehabilitation and revitalization will make it to the top priorities in the presidents’ agenda.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">What is worth noting is that, in a world where the rise of rest becomes more apparent than ever, the threats towards American monopoly are evident and effective. As Fareed Zakaria advances in his “Post-American world” masterpiece:<br />“<em style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">At the politico-military level, we remain in a single superpower world. But in every other dimension – industrial, financial, educational, social, cultural – the distribution of power is shifting, moving away from American dominance.</em>”<a a="" href="http://independentskies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/200808-post-american-world-fareed-zakaria.jpg" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" title=""><img class="alignright" height="373" src="http://independentskies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/200808-post-american-world-fareed-zakaria.jpg" style="border: none; display: inline; float: right; margin: 5px 0px 12px 15px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" title="post American world" width="250" /></a><br /><href amine="amine" belarbi.docx="belarbi.docx" belarbi="" d:="" featured="featured" file:="file:" foreign="foreign" ftn4="ftn4" independent="independent" mohamed="mohamed" policy="policy" skies="" us="us" writers="">[4]</href></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">What confirms the emergence of an economy oriented US foreign policy is the actual state of world politics. The entrenched ideological differences between communism and capitalism, and which have been fueling world politics and foreign policies for much of the 2<sup style="border: 0px; bottom: 1ex; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">nd</sup> half of the 20<sup style="border: 0px; bottom: 1ex; height: 0px; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">th</sup> century, are now fading in favor of a strong partnership between ideologically opposed nations. The US is now engaging Beijing in all levels, implementing treaties and pacts in the fields of diplomacy, culture and finance. With the recurrent high profile visits to China, US chief foreign policy makers send string signals that the China of Human Rights abuses and political totalitarianism is becoming less important than the China of investments, unprecedented economic growth and large exports scores.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">Whether it is President Obama or Mitt Romney, the challenges which highlighted the 2001- 2012 are now steadily overturned: The World is emerging stronger than ever from the Global crisis, with a broader union and conglomeration into global financial establishments and legislations, and with an Al Qaeda leadership shattered to pieces after high profile assassinations, the world security and peace are less prone to disturbances and large scale terrorist operations. The post 2012 challenges are different and require a new approach and strategy: How to stay competitive in world markets in front of Chinese manufactured goods and Indian cheap services?</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;">This is what pushes the foreign policy agenda of the next president to be consumed mainly by Asia-Pacific top priorities, and continuous focus on engaging in trade partnerships, opening new markets and facilitating the emergence of new liberal governments in the Asian continents will ultimately become recurrent news in the next 4 years presidential mandate. In a world where top players are not necessarily its biggest military forces, the diplomatic ties are likely to be strengthened with economic pioneers, and the US-BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South-Africa) relations will indeed shape the world diplomacy and politics, following the prophetic theory of Karl Marx who asserted in his “economic determinism” that human history and global political structures are determined by the course of its economic status.</span></span></div>
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Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-22076566362769253312012-09-06T20:33:00.003+02:002012-09-06T20:39:49.392+02:00When Poverty Becomes a Myth (Part 1)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-US">The series of essays "When Poverty Bcomes a Myth" aims at drawing attention towards the flaws of our current approaches to the global challenge of poverty. Though the economic, political, humanitarian and social strategies to counter poverty proliferate, the results remain the greatest witness of their recurrent failures. Throughout the series of short articles I will be publishing, you'll find a comprehensive set of recommendations and general proposals which appeal more to the common sense rather than to our understanding of the intricate mechanisms of politics, economis and society.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US">Political Reforms & Good governance<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Poverty is
far from being an offspring of resources shortage alone, it is truly the legacy
of a far greater disaster looming over the globe: Corruption!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Looking
back at the African continent with which we associate socio-economic backwardness,
the resources in there are far from being scarce, and the oil, diamond, gold
and agriculture are few aspects of the wealth present in profusion. What
undermines these resources is not the lacking human wealth either, it is far
and foremost the political leadership and centers of command whose manipulation
of the nations’ production is all but wise and guided. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The case of
Equatorial Guinea is a flamboyant case of African oil rich nations crippling
under poverty due to corruption and political tyranny. As reported by the Global
Witness:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="http://fr.allafrica.com/download/pic/main/main/csiid/00181206:00ee5466ca1ed3f5c8388dbbcfc9173f:arc350x270:w350:us1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="http://fr.allafrica.com/download/pic/main/main/csiid/00181206:00ee5466ca1ed3f5c8388dbbcfc9173f:arc350x270:w350:us1.jpg" width="320" /></a><i><span lang="EN-US">“In
2011, </span></i><a href="http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,6453242,00.html" target="_blank"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Global Witness</span></i></a><i><span lang="EN-US"> reported that his flamboyant
son Theodorin Obiang commissioned a personal super-yacht with a handsome price
tag of $380 million, worth three times the country’s combined budget for health
and education.”<span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/amine/Desktop/Poverty.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title="">[1]</a></span></b></span><a href="file:///C:/Users/amine/Desktop/Poverty.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><!--[endif]--></a></span><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span lang="EN-US"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b><br /></b></span></span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The case
pleads for a prioritization of anti-corruption measures as a pre-requisite for
poverty fighting. The state restructuration through the elimination of centers
of powers is a prominent step towards fair distribution and exploitation of
resources, but looking deeper into the cultural aspects of African Politics,
there is a key feature to explore: </span>the culture of fear.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">African
politics is always tainted with political figures with unlimited powers, in
most cases tyrannical and in few barbarians. The genocides and group massacres
led by government militias and presidential paramilitary troops are common
currency, and the people’s responses are a scarce commodity. It is indeed
unthinkable to still picture African states where rulers dominate a disgraced
populace in the 21<sup>st</sup> century, a century where democracy, human
rights and grassroots movements are weighing variables in the world political
chess-game. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Once a
nation is unchained from political constraints and totalitarian leaderships,
the prospects for growth, economic expansion and welfare state building follows
in an inherently natural process. This process is moreover self-sustaining:
under democratic state building and governance, the wealth distribution and
market liberalism alleviates socio-economic constraints and encourages progress
through renovating education which produces efficient, productive and values’
bearers’ citizen who make up the future democratic political frame of the
nation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Though
internal political reforms impact directly domestic governance, it facilitates
as well development through the resistance of foreign operating parties.
African dictatorships have never survived without foreign assistance, be it
military, financial or logistical. The same democracies who denounce genocides
and human rights violations through the state spokesmen are those who operate
the military industrial complex and the financial institutions which provide
war criminals throughout the world with the necessary weapons and financing. A
true democracy thus allows the wider audiences to question, monitor and assess
state performance and stand against narrow profitable relations between state
officials and foreign operators. But where does Investment appear in the
process of Political democratization?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.supermoneysave.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Investment-banks-India.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="http://www.supermoneysave.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Investment-banks-India.jpg" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-US">A tyrant in
the Middle East, in Southeast Asia or in the heart of Africa is all but
promised for a stable future. Autocracies lay the path for instability and high
risks in the long term, thus pushing away investors whose speculations on the
value of their assets deems them unprofitable if invested in a nation with
potential turmoil in the backyard. The case of Iran, Iraq and several Sub
Saharan African nations exemplifies the case: why would banks, multinationals,
sovereign funds and individuals put their money in projects that are not
guaranteed to last in cases of military coups, wars or social unrests? The high
risk investments have proven to be a fashion few years ago, but with the
fallouts of the financial crisis, the world post-2008 is far from getting back
to the custom of high risk – high benefit ventures. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><b>To be continued...</b></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<b>Mohamed Amine Belarbi</b></div>
<div>
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<br />
<div id="ftn1">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/amine/Desktop/Poverty.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> Global Witness, “Son of Equatorial
Guinea’s dictator plans one of world’s most expensive yachts.” Press release,
28 February 2011.</span><span style="font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-11383269550673833462012-08-13T03:14:00.004+02:002012-08-18T04:24:59.507+02:00Moroccan Youth Shadow Government<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large; line-height: 14px;">My latest article on the Youth Shadow Government</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #efede6; color: #666666; font-family: arial, 'helvetica neue', helvetica, Trebuchet, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: arial, 'helvetica neue', helvetica, Trebuchet, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;">Extract:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial, 'helvetica neue', helvetica, Trebuchet, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: arial, 'helvetica neue', helvetica, Trebuchet, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 14px;">"Pushing for greater representation of Moroccan expatriates, calling for the establishment of a rating agency for NGOs’ performance and wider accountability and audit for state grants to the civil society are few examples of what the youth shadow government has already called for and duly communicated to state officials. These are the true reforms that a nation aspires to, and this is a powerful representation of the down to top reforms scheme that most thinkers advocate for as the only way forward to induce a culture of reforms, advance and progress."</span></span></span><br />
<a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/102706007/Moroccan-Youth-Shadow-Government" style="-x-system-font: none; display: block; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 12px auto 6px auto; text-decoration: underline;" title="View Moroccan Youth Shadow Government on Scribd">Moroccan Youth Shadow Government</a><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" data-aspect-ratio="0.707514450867052" data-auto-height="true" frameborder="0" height="600" id="doc_36129" scrolling="no" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/102706007/content?start_page=1&view_mode=list&access_key=key-ggqhph4mv4dz0fxfdie" width="100%"></iframe>
</div>
Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-25097706545909302432012-08-08T05:11:00.003+02:002012-08-08T05:11:49.635+02:00Post-Revolutionary Egypt: What's Next<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Now the full document can be consulted entirely in PDF format in Scribd and Issuu.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Note:</b><br />
<br />
This document is the intellectual property of both Mohamed Amine Belarbi and the Arab Institute for Youth Policy Making. Any copy or redistribution of part or of the entire essay ought to include a reference to both parties. This essay is referenced as a publication of the AIYPM sourcing in its branch in Morocco, the MIYPM.<br />
You can consult the AIYPM blog on the following address: www. aiypm.co.cc<br />
<br />
<b><u>Full Document:</u></b><br />
<a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/102323489/Post-Revolutionary-Egypt" style="-x-system-font: none; display: block; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 12px auto 6px auto; text-decoration: underline;" title="View Post Revolutionary Egypt on Scribd">Post Revolutionary Egypt</a><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" data-aspect-ratio="0.707514450867052" data-auto-height="true" frameborder="0" height="600" id="doc_67615" scrolling="no" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/102323489/content?start_page=1&view_mode=list&access_key=key-zitg0d3j15tzq74ttw1" width="100%"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
<b>The Issuu version can be consulted here:</b><br />
<br />
<div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
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<br /></div>Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-86570133953381005622012-08-08T04:05:00.000+02:002012-08-08T04:05:40.862+02:00Post-Revolutionary Egypt: What's Next? Part 4<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US">Politics & Religion:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">One would
hardly conceive consulting a chapter on state reforms without having separate
rooms for religious and political analysis and recommendations, yet with an
elected president formed and nurtured under the auspice of the Muslim
brotherhood in Egypt, it is becoming harder to distinguish between political
agendas and religious commandments even though glorious empires and successful
state management has once been led by fervent prophets and religious apostles.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.westernjournalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/MuslimBrotherhood.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://www.westernjournalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/MuslimBrotherhood.jpg" width="317" /></a><span lang="EN-US">Political
Islamism nowadays has bridged the divide between state management and religious
theology, and the Muslim brotherhood fashion has embodied such philosophy
following the recommendations of its founder AlBanna. A legacy which, though
inspired revolutions and ignited incidents, is still at the center of
interrogation by both the public opinion and the centers of powers worldwide.
Far from being compared to the Turkish Gullen movement who advances an Islamic
agenda through education and business, the Muslim brotherhood embraces a full
political approach directed towards the control of key positions inside the
government, thus implementing its vision through state organs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">This being
said, the mischievous game of politics can easily put the current government
under stress and recurrent test, especially that the social, religious and
geographical features of Egypt allow malicious schemes to take effect without
much planning. Whether a plot to blow up a church, or a furtive attack on
border patrols near the Rafah crossing point, the blames of state mismanagement
or blind and reckless compassion with Hamas are
common currency in Pharaoh’s land, a currency too easily manipulated by
the political lack of regulation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The
Egyptian government needs to act quickly and efficiently to reverse the power
flow and to assert the will of the public opinion as main source of legislation
instead of induced and forced actions prompted by the Military council and allies
of the former regime. This can be achieved through greater representation,
active engagement of the civil society and formation of key political
alliances. The greater representation has already been upheld by president
Mursi when nominating Coptic Christians in key positions in the government, yet
the increase of the female representatives in the government has not been as
much secured. Nominating females for senior posts in the state will not only
draw support and appreciation from the public opinion, but will also clear the
doubts about the approach of the Muslim brotherhood indoctrinated president
about women rights and representation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Moreover,
representation ought not only to give justice to women, but also to the generation
Y without which a revolution could not proceed. The inclusion of the young
individuals in the ministerial cabinet and state offices is a priority and an
ethical imperative to pay tribute to the effort of the grassroots youth
movements who came to the streets and scarified lives and wealth for the nation’s
welfare. With a 71% literacy rate and a an almost 63% of population aged 15-64<a href="file:///C:/Users/amine/Desktop/Egypt.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></a>,
the young generation is not only abundant, but is also educated and well-endowed
to uphold responsibilities in the political spheres of the country. Relevant
fields of state legislations cannot be competitive, visionary and innovative
unless under the guidance of a young official. Such fields comprise the
ministries of new technologies and higher education and scientific research.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0IKgw9yeuFE/Ts_VqUpI2mI/AAAAAAAAAK0/YKB2oYj_MHw/s1600/Freedom_and_Justice_Party_%2528Egypt%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="308" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0IKgw9yeuFE/Ts_VqUpI2mI/AAAAAAAAAK0/YKB2oYj_MHw/s320/Freedom_and_Justice_Party_%2528Egypt%2529.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">On another
note, political alliances are crucial for healthy political performances both
due to its effectiveness in channeling efforts towards consensual goals and
preventing political confrontation which undermines state efforts in most cases.
The political offspring of the Muslim Brotherhood, the freedom and justice
party, ought not to indulge in ideological quarrels with the secular and
liberal movement in order not to alienate itself amid a growing critical base
in the Egyptian street. The alliances can be policies-specific and thus would
neither endanger the ideological integrity nor identity of the Muslim
Brotherhood representatives. The policies pertinent to the nations’ economy,
for example, can be drafted in coordination with the liberal movement which
abides by the market oriented principle of economy. Their inclusion in the
process of establishing a liberal, market oriented vision for Egypt will indeed
strengthen the image of the current government as an inclusive institution
meant to represent the entire ideological and political spectrum in an effort
to incrust a political democratic offset to the leading Freedom and Justice
party.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://i.ytimg.com/vi/rs95kBedGdY/0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://i.ytimg.com/vi/rs95kBedGdY/0.jpg" width="320" /></a><span lang="EN-US">Finally,
sound state management in a democratic society ought to empower the civil
society and uphold it as a crucial partner in elaborating the domestic
policies. The civil society in Egypt has proven to be an illuminated
establishment with unequal human resources, yet the attention required to
recognize the work of the numerous associations and equip them with the
necessary financial and logistical needs has been overlooked. Joining the
different NGOs in state building is not only a matter of democratic exertion
but is a point pertinent to national security concerns. Several NGOs in
Egyptian and foreign territory acquire funding and expertise from foreign
government to promote an agenda which sometimes threatens Egyptian interests.
Given the political circumstances which put Egypt on a sensitive position in the
world chess board, and the disturbances which populate the relationship between
Egypt and several governments amongst is Israel, allowing the civil society to
be infiltrated by foreign agendas because of certain political alignments or
plain negligence is a fatal error which endangers the homeland security at the
highest levels.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">This being
said, these set of recommendations and opinions are to be observed and
implemented, and timing in state management is a crucial feature which alone
can determine whether a government can indeed succeed or fail dramatically
regardless of the nature of its policies. Egypt is in a historical turnout, and
recalling the losses in human and financial resources makes it clear that
enough has been suffered and scarified, and time has come to do the right
things at the right moment.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<b>Mohamed Amine Belarbi</b></div>
<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<div id="ftn1">
<div class="MsoFootnoteText">
<a href="file:///C:/Users/amine/Desktop/Egypt.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-US"> The CIA World Factbook, </span><a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html"><span lang="EN-US">https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html</span></a> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6984894688776877659.post-22449869774005778252012-08-01T19:04:00.002+02:002012-08-01T19:09:20.177+02:00Independent Skies Magazine 4th Issue<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div>
As part of flourishing partnership with Independent Skies, it is with pleasure that I present you the 4th edition of the Independent Skies Magazine.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://independentskies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/logo-211-e1342777361549.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="52" src="http://independentskies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/logo-211-e1342777361549.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
I wish to thank the team for the brilliant effort put into such publication, and special thanks for featuring my article on my visit to the EU parliament, and for featuring this very blog on their magazine.<br />
<br />
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<br /></div>Mohamed Aminehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11684255190454311282noreply@blogger.com0